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ESPN: 8 reasons why OU could win the football national championship

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Since this is an ESPN Insider article, I copied it below. It is from: http://espn.go.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/15040141/oklahoma-sooners-loaded-win-2016-college-football-playoff



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Why Oklahoma is one of only 11 teams that can win the 2016 CFP



There are 128 teams who play at the highest level of college football, and they all start the season undefeated.

But the harsh reality is only 11 have a legitimate chance to win the 2016 College Football Playoff. In the ninth installment of an 11-part series, let's take a look at another of the few teams that could actually win the CFP: theOklahoma Sooners.

Last year, Bob Stoops' club posted its 13th 10-win season since 2000 (most in the FBS), a showing that could serve as a springboard to a national championship given the collection of talent returning from that squad. And remember, OU got to the CFP and brings back a good chunk of its key contributors.

Here are eight reasons how -- and why -- the Sooners could pick up those final two wins of the season in 2016.

Mayfield is Heisman-worthy
The most skilled person on OU's roster has to be Baker Mayfield. Last year he placed eighth among Power 5 quarterbacks in Total QBR (81.7), third in vertical pass Total QBR (95.5 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and sixth on short pass Total QBR (80.9 on attempts traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield). This wasn't just a matter of consistent performances, as Mayfield showed record-setting capacity when he established Oklahoma single-game marks for total offense (572 yards versus Tulsa) and touchdown passes in a half (five, against Kansas State) and tied the single-game team record for touchdowns accounted for (six, also against Tulsa).

Big 12's best running backs
After only two seasons,Samaje Perinealready ranks in the top 10 in Oklahoma program history in rushing touchdowns (37, ninth) and rushing yards (3,062, ranked 10th). That is an incredible achievement given the Sooners' storied running back history that includes all-time greats such as Adrian Peterson, DeMarco Murray, Steve Owens, Billy Sims, Greg Pruitt, Billy Vessels and Joe Washington.

Add inJoe Mixon, who ranked seventh among Power 5 backs with 100 or more carries last season in rushing yards per carry (6.7) andAlex Ross(18 rushes of 10 or more yards on only 123 career rushing attempts) and the Sooners may have the best set of running backs in the Big 12.

2015 offensive line? Not so good. 2016 O-line? Should be much better
The Sooners opened the 2015 campaign with freshmen at both offensive tackle positions (Orlando BrownandDru Samia). According to the Oklahoma sports information department, that is the first time that had ever happened in a Sooners season-opening game.

Add in freshmanJonathan Alvarezand the Oklahoma front wall got out of the gate with three first-year starters. That inexperience caused some run-blocking problems early on, but things got a lot better after this group jelled. From Week 8 to the end of the season, Oklahoma ranked first among Power 5 clubs in yards per rush (6.0), tied for first in rushing touchdowns per game (3.3), second in rushes of 10 or more yards (68), second in rushing yards per game (276.3) and tied for second in first downs per rush (31.1 percent).

Offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley's offensive lines have seen improvement in his second year in previous stops and that should be the case again this year because the aforementioned freshmen blocking trio will be joined by two ESPN Junior College 50 offensive linemen (Ben Powers and Ashton Julious) as well asJamal Danley, the No. 1 rated ESPN JC guard in 2015 and two recent four-star recruits, Bobby Evans and Alex Dalton.

Sterling who?
It's difficult to replace a player of Sterling Shepard's caliber, but the Sooners have more than a few candidates to take up the performance slack. The prime candidate here isDede Westbrook, the Big 12's newcomer of the year in 2015. Westbrook had 18 stretch vertical targets last year (aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield), a total that was equal to Shepard's, and he had three stretch vertical touchdowns (only one shy of Shepard's four stretch vertical touchdowns), so he brings the type of tear-the-top-off-the-defense skill set that opponents will have to respect.

Another playmaking option isGeno Lewis, a fifth-year transfer from Penn State. Lewis had a down season last year, but in 2014 he ranked tied for sixth in the Big Ten in stretch vertical receptions (seven), ninth in stretch vertical yards (274) and tied for ninth in vertical receptions (16). He should be able to serve as a very effective downfield counterpunch to Westbrook.

A somewhat under-the-radar target could be tight endMark Andrews. Last year, Andrews set an Oklahoma record for most touchdown receptions by a freshman (seven) despite playing in only 107 of 439 pass attempts. Put him on the field on a full-time basis and Andrews could vie for a double-digit touchdown total.

Best secondary in the country?
Even with the loss of Zack Sanchez, Oklahoma is absolutely stacked in terms of defensive secondary talent. They bring back arguably their best cornerback inJordan Thomas, who made the 2015 ESPN.com All-Big 12 team in part by racking up five interceptions (tied for third in the Big 12) and gaining 153 interception return yards (sixth most in a single season in Oklahoma history).

The Sooners' deep secondary coverage will be in great shape because they return two All-Big 12 second team safeties inAhmad ThomasandSteven Parker. This duo ranked first and third on the team, respectively, in defensive snaps last season (947 for Thomas, 931 for Parker, according to Stats LLC). They also placed tied for 21st (Thomas, 7.1) and 28th (Parker, 7.6) in yards per attempt allowed among Power 5 safeties with 30 or more targets last season.

Depth is another strong suit for this club, especially at cornerback where the Sooners haveDakota Austin(5.5 YPA last year, best among Sooners cornerbacks with 30 or more targets),P.J. Mbanasor(the Sooners top-rated recruit in the 2015 class) and several other highly rated players.

The defensive front seven has some scary talent
Oklahoma's personnel losses in the defensive front seven are one of the biggest hurdles to this team's national-title hopes, but there are many candidates in line to take over as impact players in this group.

At the top of this list:Charles Walker, who racked up six sacks, 10 tackles for loss, one pass breakup, three quarterback hurries, one forced fumble and 36 tackles last season. Those are impressive numbers on their own, yet Walker tallied them on only 392 defensive snaps, or only 39.6 percent of the team's 989 total defensive snaps last season. Move Walker to a full-time snap basis and his production could skyrocket.

The same can be said for many other Oklahoma defensive linemen.Matt Dimonhad seven tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and 34 tackles on only 460 snaps.Marquise Overtontallied two sacks, two tackles for loss and six tackles on a mere 80 snaps. Add linebacker Caleb Kelly, Oklahoma's top-rated prospect in the 2016 recruiting class to a slew of additional four-star defensive front seven recruits over the past two years and the Sooners should be able to get quality production out of this group.

Special teams should be very strong (again)
Stoops has a long history of getting upper-tier performance out of his special teams. This was the case in many ways last year, as kicker/punterAustin Seibertwon second-team All-Big 12 honors by ranking fifth among Power 5 kickers in field goal percentage on kicks of 40 or more yards (83.3 percent, minimum 10 total field goal attempts).

Throw in the team leading the nation in punt return average allowed and it would seem hard to improve upon this platoon, but there actually are reasons to think Oklahoma could see significant improvement here. The Sooners posted a minus-4.5 total in ESPN Stats & Information's special teams expected points added (STEPA) metric that measures the scoreboard impact of special teams plays via anexpected points framework. That is the second-lowest STEPA posted by a Stoops Oklahoma club since the metric started being tracked in 2005 and is much lower than typical 10-20 point STEPA range tallied by his teams.

With some improvement in long kickoff returns, an area where the team gave up three returns of 30 or more yards (tied for last in the Big 12), this platoon should move back to its normal level.

Yeah, those road games aren't very hard

The Sooners do have a tough overall schedule, including an early-season home contest against Ohio State and a trip to Houston to play the Cougars (though that one is at NRG Stadium, not Houston's TDECU Stadium). But the Buckeyes had to replace a total of 16 offensive and defensive starters and thus will likely still be facing some growing pains at that point of the season. The away schedule is also highly favorable, as outside of TCU, Oklahoma has three only true road matchups, with those contests being against teams that finished 12-17 in the Big 12 last year (West Virginia, Texas Tech and Iowa State).
The bottom line
The Sooners ranked third in ESPN Stats & Information's preseason Football Power Index that is designed to measure team strength going forward. Oklahoma is one of only two teams in that analysis that are predicted to rank in the top four both in offense and defense (LSU being the other). Combine that with the special teams prowess and there might not be a more complete team in college football.
 
Good write up. Okay, let's tee it up and get the season started! Oh, I guess I'm a few months early. Can you blame me for being excited? Fortunately, March Madness will keep me occupied for the time being.
 
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Stats don't tell the whole story you know that
We will have a very tough time replacing Shepard and those guys from defense ( striker, tapper, etc). I think we will be good but not as good as last year
 
He was listing reasons "why", not "why not". He listed every valid reason why we will be a likely contender, and while I share your concerns about replacing the aforementioned players, his points about being better on both lines and the secondary were spot on.

And while I see Shepard as the most irreplaceable, an increase in the number of receiving threats can offset one great one. And Mark Andrews threat potential is as high as any we've had under Stoops.

The early season schedule is daunting, but I'd be shocked if we aren't a stronger overall team in 2016 compared to 2015. However, we can only hope to be as fortunate on the injury front as we were last season, which as any knowledgeable fan can tell you, is capable of derailing even the greatest expectations.
 
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He was listing reasons "why", not "why not". He listed every valid reason why we will be a likely contender, and while I share your concerns about replacing the aforementioned players, his points about being better on both lines and the secondary were spot on.

And while I see Shepard as the most irreplaceable, an increase in the number of receiving threats can offset one great one. And Mark Andrews threat potential is as high as any we've had under Stoops.

The early season schedule is daunting, but I'd be shocked if we aren't a stronger overall team in 2016 compared to 2015. However, we can only hope to be as fortunate on the injury front as we were last season, which as any knowledgeable fan can tell you, is capable of derailing even the greatest expectations.

I would just add no one is talking about the loss of players at TCU, Baylor or OSU. They have more holes to fill than we do. Texas really looks okay if they find a Q-B.

TOSU lost nearly half their starters. Bama and ND not so much. I think we we'll be fine
 
For me it's more about what we return.

One of the nation's best a QB. Strong indicator of success.

3/5 OL. Maybe the biggest indicator of success. Though, I will say there is still much to prove for this group.

All but 1 DL. I see this as likely to be our biggest area of improvement and the most vital key to a strong defense.

All but 1 DB and plenty of experience in the reserves. With a dominant DL these guys jobs will get easier to boot.

One of nations best kickers who happens to be one of nations best punters.

The best, without question, running back tandem in all the land (one who seems to be inhuman).

A TE who looks the part of a young Gronkowski while at Arizona. If you're not excited to see what Andrews becomes you need to check your pulse.
 
For me it's more about what we return.

One of the nation's best a QB. Strong indicator of success.

3/5 OL. Maybe the biggest indicator of success. Though, I will say there is still much to prove for this group.

All but 1 DL. I see this as likely to be our biggest area of improvement and the most vital key to a strong defense.

All but 1 DB and plenty of experience in the reserves. With a dominant DL these guys jobs will get easier to boot.

One of nations best kickers who happens to be one of nations best punters.

The best, without question, running back tandem in all the land (one who seems to be inhuman).

A TE who looks the part of a young Gronkowski while at Arizona. If you're not excited to see what Andrews becomes you need to check your pulse.
I do agree that we have the most important ingredient which is QB. Mayfield can take us a long ways but he is going to need help. Replacing Shepard, regardless of how many supposed good receivers we have, will be extremely difficult. We could be just as good, but it will take other players stepping up and so far I'm not convinced they can do it. Andrews showed promise last year and Mead made some plays against Clemson. However, I want to see them do it on a more consistent basis.
 
D and O line are not where they need to be and WR is shaky

I don't disagree but I like the looks of where these groups can go.

We're all questioning most of the same things all the nation's elite are as well.

We don't have to have a world beater at WR, but we do need Westbrook, Andrews, Mead, Quick and one or two more, to contribute. Andrews and Westbrook have proven more than capable and Mead and Quick have shown glimpses.

Do not underestimate the attention given to the feet of Mayfield, Perine and Mixon. If ever there were a backfield to make the lives of a wide receiver easy...we got it.
 
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I don't disagree but I like the looks of where these groups can go.

We're all questioning most of the same things all the nation's elite are as well.

We don't have to have a world beater at WR, but we do need Westbrook, Andrews, Mead, Quick and one or two more, to contribute. Andrews and Westbrook have proven more than capable and Mead and Quick have shown glimpses.

Do not underestimate the attention given to the feet of Mayfield, Perine and Mixon. If ever there were a backfield to make the lives of a wide receiver easy...we got it.
From what I have seen, Westbrook has a chance to be solid, Quick will never be more than average at best, and Mead has been nonexistent for the most part. Andrews probably has the most potential but we have to be able to get him the ball. They might want to rely more heavily on Mixon as a receiver this season.
 
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From what I have seen, Westbrook has a chance to be solid, Quick will never be more than average at best, and Mead has been nonexistent for the most part. Andrews probably has the most potential but we have to be able to get him the ball. They might want to rely more heavily on Mixon as a receiver this season.


You have no idea how good our returning receivers will perform.
 
Good assessment barking. It's easy in March to talk about how good some players can potentially be come fall. But right now that's all it is....potential
 
From what I have seen, Westbrook has a chance to be solid, Quick will never be more than average at best, and Mead has been nonexistent for the most part. Andrews probably has the most potential but we have to be able to get him the ball. They might want to rely more heavily on Mixon as a receiver this season.


Westbrook is already solid and Mead has the physical tools to be anything he wants to. I'd say your remark on Quick is unfair. Neither of us knows how Quick will perform. He could be a quality slot receiver or he could continue to underachieve.

Andrews had a great freshman season and looks poised to explode.

With Mayfield, Perine and Mixon behind a better OL, all of the receivers will have an opportunity to excel.
 
Quicks assessment is not unfair and it's dead on. Up until this point, he has been average at best.
 
Quicks assessment is not unfair and it's dead on. Up until this point, he has been average at best.

Not at all.

To this point he has been below average but stating he can only ever be at best average is unfair and unsubstantiated.
 
On paper this team will be 25% better than last year. We improve on every position except replacing Shep. due to experience or just talent. ESPN picked Gallimore as one five players nationally to watch in 2016. We only have one starter back at LB, but you watch this will be a strong area in 2016. We will be better than what we lost.
 
Stats don't tell the whole story you know that
We will have a very tough time replacing Shepard and those guys from defense ( striker, tapper, etc). I think we will be good but not as good as last year

I disagree. I actually think the team will be more balanced offensively w/o Shepard. While there is no doubt that Mayfield will need a 'go to' guy I think the offense rolls. Defensively, we're going to be better at LB. This alone will help make a big difference.

My only concern is Mayfield's health & ST play.
 
On paper this team will be 25% better than last year. We improve on every position except replacing Shep. due to experience or just talent. ESPN picked Gallimore as one five players nationally to watch in 2016. We only have one starter back at LB, but you watch this will be a strong area in 2016. We will be better than what we lost.
OU loses 4 of 5 of its linebackers (which the ESPN article doesn't mention), has a quarterback who suffered a concussion in 2 of his last 3 games and has no proven backup, loses it's main receiving target in Shepard (one of OU's legendary players), only three proven receivers in Westbrook, Andrews and Lewis, a rebuilt offensive line, a kicker who consistently boomed kickoffs into the opponents' end zone and questions in the secondary behind Steven Parker and Ahmad Thomas.
In addition, OU could be better but lose at least 2 regular season games in 2016. Lots of young players need to step up immediately.
 
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Exactly ctokie.....I understand people getting their hopes up from Feb to August but the reality of it is we have a lot of holes to fill and some of them were left by all Americans ( Shepard and striker)
 
Exactly ctokie.....I understand people getting their hopes up from Feb to August but the reality of it is we have a lot of holes to fill and some of them were left by all Americans ( Shepard and striker)


Hmmm that almost sounds like...

...college football.
 
Hey I used to do this too...in other words build players up in the off season then come September some of those guys wouldn't even get on the field. I'll take the wait and see approach. Unless our guys on the oline and dline improve greatly, we ain't winning a NC. Bama and Clemson were so much better in the trenches and it wasn't even close
 
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OU loses 4 of 5 of its linebackers (which the ESPN article doesn't mention), has a quarterback who suffered a concussion in 2 of his last 3 games and has no proven backup, loses it's main receiving target in Shepard (one of OU's legendary players), only three proven receivers in Westbrook, Andrews and Lewis, a rebuilt offensive line, a kicker who consistently boomed kickoffs into the opponents' end zone and questions in the secondary behind Steven Parker and Ahmad Thomas.
In addition, OU could be better but lose at least 2 regular season games in 2016. Lots of young players need to step up immediately.

I agree. And yet they are in better shape this season going into it than they were last year and they made it to the Final 4.
 
I understand how some of you get excited this time of year dreaming about all the "potential" we have on the team. I to used to do that. I was so certain after Knight's Sugar Bowl game that we would have a great chance at a NC the next season. Well we all know what happened and I've learned the hard way not to get caught up in all the hype.

All we can do is go by the performances of the players in past seasons. Quick was a hyped player coming out of HS and I thought he was probably going to be really good. Well, he hasn't and nothing he has shown me makes me think he is going to be anywhere close to our best receiver. Mead, also highly touted coming out of HS, has probably been even worse. He has all the physical tools but so did Dejuan Miller. I want to see him do something before I even begin to start thinking he might be serviceable. Andrews, I agree, has shown signs of being good. Time will tell but he does have that chance. Westbrook was the 2nd best behind Shepard last year. He is never going to be a Shepard, Broyles, Or Clayton, but he could and should be our #1 guy next year. Whatever the case, WR is going to be one of our question marks next year. Hopefully the OC can work with what he have and develop some schemes to make average players better.
 
I think bullmarket has come out of retirement and started writing for ESPN.

Injuries and who stays healthy is always going to be a big factor in a season. But I don't think there is any way OU won't be better next season.Might be better, but not have as good a record. The online will be a lot better. The running backs will be better.

Mayfield will be better. Now if he gets hurt, Not sure the Sooners will have much going on offense unless that freshman is a shocking stud. At least he's here in the spring.

The running backs will be better. I expect Mixon to blow us away.

THe punter and PK will be returning. He was a true freshmen; he has to be a little better. The only step down on offense is at receiver, but that was really one guy. THey'll be close to as good as a group.

Defense, the line will be spectacular. The secondary will be as good as any in the country. The linebackers and pass rush are what has to be figured out. But the people are there to make it happen.

I think the biggest improvement will just be the mastery of the offense. It was all about learning from scratch a year ago. Now, for the returners, it's about the little things that couldn't be a focus last year, because there was so much to learn.

OUr front three on defense will be elite. Our running backs will be elite. OUr quarterback was already elite. This OLine will be bigger and stronger and both tackles will be bigger and a year of experience. One will be an AA candidate.
 
I've read many posts that come close to saying that Shepard is almost non-replacable. I loved the kid. He was a great Sooner. There is no doubt that. He's about to make his mark in the NFL. But, I'm convinced that OU is going to be OK at the WR spot in 2016 barring some serious injury(s). Collectively as a group, we're in better shape than last year.
 
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I understand how some of you get excited this time of year dreaming about all the "potential" we have on the team. I to used to do that. I was so certain after Knight's Sugar Bowl game that we would have a great chance at a NC the next season. Well we all know what happened and I've learned the hard way not to get caught up in all the hype.

All we can do is go by the performances of the players in past seasons. Quick was a hyped player coming out of HS and I thought he was probably going to be really good. Well, he hasn't and nothing he has shown me makes me think he is going to be anywhere close to our best receiver. Mead, also highly touted coming out of HS, has probably been even worse. He has all the physical tools but so did Dejuan Miller. I want to see him do something before I even begin to start thinking he might be serviceable. Andrews, I agree, has shown signs of being good. Time will tell but he does have that chance. Westbrook was the 2nd best behind Shepard last year. He is never going to be a Shepard, Broyles, Or Clayton, but he could and should be our #1 guy next year. Whatever the case, WR is going to be one of our question marks next year. Hopefully the OC can work with what he have and develop some schemes to make average players better.

Who said Quick was gonna be our best receiver? Not a rhetorical question, who said it?

And Andrews has only shown signs? You serious Clark?
 
Plaimo I disagree. When is the last time the dline has been spectular? Or the secondary been spectular? Are we getting a whole new set of guys? Not saying we were bad but I think your predictions are far fetched. I hope I'm wrong
 
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I've read many posts that come close to saying that Shepard is almost non-replacable. I loved the kid. He was a great Sooner. There is no doubt that. He's about to make his mark in the NFL. But, I'm convinced that OU is going to be OK at the WR spot in 2016 barring some serious injury(s). Collectively as a group, we're in better shape than last year.

Some don't want to see that.
 
Plaimo I disagree. When is the last time the dline has been spectular? Or the secondary been spectular? Are we getting a whole new set of guys? Not saying we were bad but I think your predictions are far fetched. I hope I'm wrong

We'll replace one CB. Both Safetys and one CB (2015/6 INTs) are returning. The only group that is being hit hard is at LB. And to be honest, I thought it was the LBs were the weak link of the defense the past few seasons. I actually see an upgrade coming.
 
"... and here's your sign." comes to mind.

It's the typical word twisting to serve the always pessimistic purpose.

The answer to my question I'll never get is...nobody. Nobody said Quick was gonna be our best receiver.

And saying Andrews only showed signs is asinine. He was great considering the role he was given.
 
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Wnas I know what guys we have returning, I'm stating I have a hard time they will be spectacular. They weren't last year, but they were solid. Versus Clemson we were manhandled in the trenches on both sides.
 
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Who said Quick was gonna be our best receiver? Not a rhetorical question, who said it?

And Andrews has only shown signs? You serious Clark?
ummmmm did I say someone said Quick was going to be our best receiver? So quick to jump to conclusions as usual. Westbrook is our best receiver right now unless someone steps up their game. Andrews has a chance to be a really good player, but he isn't there yet. I don't know his stats, but I think they were probably average. I remember one game where he had more than one drop. He does seem to have a lot of potential though
 
ummmmm did I say someone said Quick was going to be our best receiver? So quick to jump to conclusions as usual. Westbrook is our best receiver right now unless someone steps up their game. Andrews has a chance to be a really good player, but he isn't there yet. I don't know his stats, but I think they were probably average. I remember one game where he had more than one drop. He does seem to have a lot of potential though

Then why imply it by saying anything at all about him being the best.? It wouldn't make sense for you to suggest it unless it was an attempt to put words in another's mouth.

Nobody expects Quick to be our best receiver.
 
Then why imply it by saying anything at all about him being the best.? It wouldn't make sense for you to suggest it unless it was an attempt to put words in another's mouth.

Nobody expects Quick to be our best receiver.
Quick was a highly rated receiver coming out of high school so I think he was expected to be pretty darn good. Thus my reference. Thanks for caring though
 
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