Win out and we're in, but that's also true for a few other teams.
Not in the scenario with the current top 4 winning out. I don't see UGA or Bama creaming the other in the SEC CCG so both will stay, 1 with a CCG loss. That leaves the other two: ND's overall SOS will be strong and their lone loss to UGA will be better than our loss; The weakest resume' would be Clemson but they'd add undefeated Miami as a W and no one is going to keep a 1-loss previous year NC champion out.
The other regular season games that matter the most to us (assuming Mike gets his $#!t in a pile and any of this matters):
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Clemson at NC State this Saturday (FSU, Citadel and SCarolina have almost zero shot of beating them).
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ND at Miami and at Stanford (Wake and Navy may put up a fight for a half, but that's it).
And then there are the wildcards of
Wiscy and Miami winning out.
Wiscy should lose to tOSU in their CCG, but if they win, they match our best win, still have an otherwise crap SOS, but are undefeated. Would we go over an undefeated conf champion?
Miami winning out means wins over two current top 4 teams: Notre Dame and Clemson, the latter in their CCG. I did not mention that with Clemson above so I could discuss it here - but Miami as undefeated conf champion definitely goes over us with those two scalps.
The best, most realistic scenario for OU: Clemson loses to NC State this Saturday and then beats Miami in the ACC CCG (if needed - the Canes play the Fightin' Fuentes this weekend, and my money is on the Hokies). We'd slide into the four spot and likely stay there even if Wiscy pulls a miracle upset over tOSU in the Big 10 CCG. ND slipping up to either @Miami or @Stanford is plan B, but I just think Clemson's mediocre offense slipping up to NC State in Raleigh is the better upset possibility.
And then there's the upset
no one saw coming. Happens every year....