It opened a "pickum" and went to a 1 and one half favorite favoring OU.
OSU opens a 3 point favorite against Texas..........
OSU opens a 3 point favorite against Texas..........
OU versus TCU betting line..
- Thread starter K2C Sooner
- Start date
Won't be surprised if it goes either way. My concern is TCU coaching vs OUs. Patterson will have his team ready.
I could see a decisive TCU win as OU just isn't that good and has showed nothing in the way of playing well (especially on defense) and playing (and coaching) smart.
I see OU scoring at least 24 points and losing by 10-14 points.
I see OU scoring at least 24 points and losing by 10-14 points.
I have to side with CT on this one. Unless Mike and Bob have done something during the Bye week to turn this D around, we're looking at a possible double-digit loss in Ft. Worth. I find it hard to believe this team is a one-point favorite at TCU. I woudl have thought we'd start out around 3-4 point underdog.
And those "crooked nose guys" got their asses handed to them favoring OU vs. tOSU. So, they do know something, but a lot about nothing too!
OU laying 3.5 now so Vegas thinks OU is going to go down there are kick there tail
To be honest, I really don't know what to expect this coming game with TCU. I haven't looked all that much into TCU and what they are bringing. Patterson is a solid coach though so I'm sure he has taken lessons from OUs losses to Houston and Ohio State and planned accordingly. Let's hope Bob and the staff have made some significant strides the 2 weeks they have been off.
I was just going to post the point jump. KD Cannon is out....right. That's like missing a Shep...
KD Cannon??? You mean the WR for Baylor?? And here I got fooled thinking this thread was about the TCU game.....good grief....LOL
KD Cannon??? You mean the WR for Baylor?? And here I got fooled thinking this thread was about the TCU game.....good grief....LOL
Okay, I screwed up....Big deal.
Tea Cup has looked mediocre as far as I'm concerned. Trill Hill is hit and miss... Hit him and he'll definitely miss... The trill is gone, the trill is gone away...
And those "crooked nose guys" got their asses handed to them favoring OU vs. tOSU. So, they do know something, but a lot about nothing too!
If you are saying that the odds makers had OU favored over tOSU, you be wrong.
Tcu has a receiver out but next man up no excuses they are loaded at receiver position.
Mike isn't going anywhere Ou will be a nasty D by week 6
Well... I guess that would be nice if the season started on week 6. But the season actually started on week 1....
I guess ole Charles Tapper wasn't as great a source as some hoped in saying OUs defense was gonna be nasty this year and that OU wasn't going to lose a game this year on the way to making the playoffs....
Not really. It just means that gamblers have been going heavy on OU, despite TCU having a home game. I'm still concerned about OUr receiver corps and OUr OLine. I wouldn't touch this game, though I think the son of the old Ranger pitcher is not exactly the rock solid quarterback that many thought, three or four games into his freshman year at A&M.
Patterson seems to give extra effort into preparing game plans for games against OU.
If we win, this game will be decided by our offensive line. It's time to grow up and have a dominant game. The TCU team always has a very good front seven and the OL needs to move them back.
I like Wren at center (looks small) and Samia and Alverez at guard. Both Brown and Evans struggled against OSU, but we got to stick with something this time of year.........JMO
BTW, Wren got a school today..........
No one has a dominant defense lineman that the Houston freshman lined up against us. Forgot his name, but he has star written all over him..........Best I seen since Tommy Harris.
I like Wren at center (looks small) and Samia and Alverez at guard. Both Brown and Evans struggled against OSU, but we got to stick with something this time of year.........JMO
BTW, Wren got a school today..........
No one has a dominant defense lineman that the Houston freshman lined up against us. Forgot his name, but he has star written all over him..........Best I seen since Tommy Harris.
We all knew the offense was going to need to carry the young D the first half of the season but I really believe the D will show up big the next 2 weeks.
Boomer
Boomer
Soonersincefitty
Sooner starter
That's not true and a common misconception, and this will be the 3rd time I've corrected you on this topic. The top Vegas line-setter himself said that he doesn't care where the money is going when he sets his lines. He makes his own original lines based on his knowledge and experts, then they will pay attention to SPECIFIC gamblers, not the overall money distribution. They know, and have their eyes on, the truly great gamblers.
LoL. Bugs me when you try to teach someone something yet they keep trying to spread a false rumor.
You are correct in that I was mistaken. tOSU started out as a 3 point favorite, but it was a 1.5 point favorite at game time. They won by 21. I'd say Las Vegas was wrong.
Lines don't move because spread setters change their minds. The spreads change because of uneven handle.
Lines don't move because spread setters change their minds. The spreads change because of uneven handle.
Speaking of misconceptions ....
http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html
How the Betting Line is Made
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.
"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why the Line Changes
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."
Which is exactly what you said is a misconception. So I guess you're wrong for the third time.
Speaking of misconceptions ....
http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html
How the Betting Line is Made
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.
Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.
"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').
Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.
A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why the Line Changes
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:
- Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
- Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.
For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.
Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."
"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."
Which is exactly what you said is a misconception. So I guess you're wrong for the third time.
I'm telling you exactly what was stated by a senior Vegas line setter, and the guy considered to be the best. He was interviewed by The Ticket about 2 years ago. He specifically said that money was no part of the equation. The movement of specific gamblers was considered.
I want you to explain to me if the entire point of oddsmaking in Vegas were to balance the books why are there oddsmakers at all? A computer algorithm can balance the line in real-time better than any human could. And if you didn't trust a computer algorithm, why would you pay any human millions to make odds? Anyone with basic bookkeeping skills could balance the bets. You could pay a $30k/yr fresh out of college business major to do it.
The pros alter the line at the end based on educated decisions to maximize their company profits. They don't just want the guaranteed 10% earnings. Those educated decisions are heavily influenced by SPECIFIC gamblers that they keep their eyes on.
This is so easy to understand.
And instead of waiting for the answer, I'll give you the answer as explained right here:
http://accuscore.com/sports-betting-system/general-expert-analysis/how-do-oddsmakers-make-the-odds
However, sports oddsmakers are no different than a player who spends his time looking for edges. Because they are the final arbiter in making a line, an oddsmaker might add or deduct points from the sports betting line if they feel the public is willing to pay the inflated rate.
The best example I can give is when the New York Giants played the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. Our simulation line had the Patriots as a 9.5-point favorite, as did other computer based formulas and well known sports handicappers. However, Vegas knew that the Patriots were 18-0 and felt that they could inflate the point spread up to 13-points. The Patriots had not lost a game, beat the Giants four weeks earlier and it seemed very reasonable that the they would beat the Giants by two touchdowns.
The fact that the Giants won the game has no meaning to my point. Oddsmakers rely on a unique algorhythm to create a betting line for that game. Once they get that number for the spread, they then have the right to alter the line to make it more attractive to one side, or give them a statistical advantage based on the math.
The pros alter the line at the end based on educated decisions to maximize their company profits. They don't just want the guaranteed 10% earnings. Those educated decisions are heavily influenced by SPECIFIC gamblers that they keep their eyes on.
This is so easy to understand.
And instead of waiting for the answer, I'll give you the answer as explained right here:
http://accuscore.com/sports-betting-system/general-expert-analysis/how-do-oddsmakers-make-the-odds
However, sports oddsmakers are no different than a player who spends his time looking for edges. Because they are the final arbiter in making a line, an oddsmaker might add or deduct points from the sports betting line if they feel the public is willing to pay the inflated rate.
The best example I can give is when the New York Giants played the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. Our simulation line had the Patriots as a 9.5-point favorite, as did other computer based formulas and well known sports handicappers. However, Vegas knew that the Patriots were 18-0 and felt that they could inflate the point spread up to 13-points. The Patriots had not lost a game, beat the Giants four weeks earlier and it seemed very reasonable that the they would beat the Giants by two touchdowns.
The fact that the Giants won the game has no meaning to my point. Oddsmakers rely on a unique algorhythm to create a betting line for that game. Once they get that number for the spread, they then have the right to alter the line to make it more attractive to one side, or give them a statistical advantage based on the math.
