OT: Oil prices rebound $4, so let's hope it's bottoms-up

[JMISASANO]

Of course, this is most likely driven on speculation as drilling rigs get stacked and Big Oil continues to announce major cuts in exploration and development.

Conoco to cut $5B alone this year.

456 rigs have been stacked since this time last year, 20%.

I keep reading 20% is the cuts in oil services pricing as well, which appears to be the magic number around the industry. Cut 20% off of inflated salary scales and perhaps this industry will right size itself to hard numbers that can sustain an operation with a strong balance of highly qualified oil and gas professionals instead of private equity start-ups that are dipping their toes in the water just to test it, driving up competition for experienced personnel.

Hopefully, WTI will roll through $55 by the end of Q2, then roll into $60 by the end of Q4.

Once oil rolls into $65 to $70, the stadium upgrades will catch momentum again even if it settles around $75 imo.

I can handle a $75 price point to keep O&G jobs responsibly stable and the overall nation's economy stable.

Feedstock will be attractive for petrochemicals, airlines, land transports and vacationers looking to fill up.

Coal perhaps can return to the markets with their technologies as well.

I'm optimistic about the future, until China shale plays get online with their cheap labor, raw materials and manufacturing by 2025. Hopefully, the stadium will be built by then.

Oil prices rocket by nearly $4 a barrelNew York (AFP) - Oil prices surged by nearly $4 a barrel in late trade Friday, rebounding from six-year lows on month-end covering and signs the industry is quickly tightening exploration activities.


Oil surges 8 percent as U.S. rig count plunges, shorts scramble Reuters


At the end of the session, WTI closed at $48.24, a gain of $3.71 from Thursday.


In London, Brent North Sea crude for March followed a similar trajectory, trading slightly lower over most of the session and then soaring more than $4. The contract closed at $52.99 a barrel, a gain of $3.46.


Traders said that there was a lot of short-covering by big investors on the final trading day of the month that likely spurred the spike.


"The commodity funds have been heavily short on this market. It's the end of the month, and there is a little bit of a short-covering rally," said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group.


"Yesterday, when oil went below $44, it couldn't follow through and it reversed course during the day, which is a signal for a bottom."


Also giving support were more signs of sharp cutbacks in the oil industry, which could portend a tighter market in the medium term.


Chevron said it would cut exploration and development spending by $5 billion this year.[/B]


And the Baker Hughes North America rig count, which gauges activity in the United States, Canada and Gulf of Mexico oil and gas fields, took a sharp fall over the past week, dropping by 128 rigs to 1,937. That compared with 2,393 a year ago.


"That's the lowest level we've seen in a couple of years. Perhaps that means tighter supplies in the future," said Flynn.





This post was edited on 1/31 7:51 AM by JMISASANO

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-price-firms-slumping-close-six-low-134418488.html

 

[Brentwood Sooner]

Gas needs to go up like you said they are laying off people left and right, plus you see what happened to the OU stadium renovation. I don't mind pay 2.25 or so a gallon if it keeps them from laying people off

 

[WhyNotaSooner]

Buisness Week is reporting an expected 28,000 jobs cut for Houston's Oil giants in 2015.

Baker Hughes has already cut 7,000
BP has cut 6,000 in Houston
Schulemberger 9,000 w/ another 11,000 expected

These will have tremendous ripple effects. Houston is already reeling. The economy by 2016 may not look to pretty.

 

[gsxrace01]

with an idiot like scott pruitt running thing's there's not much hope,he's suing the epa,he's suing colorado,he's suing obamacare,the guy is out of control! In case you haven't heard, that beloved Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, along with our backwards friends from Nebraska, is suing Colorado because the state is forward thinking and decided to legalize recreational marijuana instead of fighting a racially biased, insane, unwinnable war to eliminate and ban its use.
This post was edited on 1/31 12:11 PM by gsxrace01

 

[barkingwater2000]

I think most people, myself included, prefer $1.60 gas or $3.00. The oil field workers have been making a killing for many years now so its nice to see everyone else getting a break for a change.

 

[JMISASANO]

SLB - 9,000 worldwide, had to cut and earmarked write downs + - 1.5B.

= $590M WesternGeco seismic marine fleet

= $472M devaluation charge in Venezuela

= $200M oil assets in Texas

= $290M employee reductions






This post was edited on 1/31 9:56 AM by JMISASANO

 

[JMISASANO]

Originally posted by WhyNotaSooner:
Buisness Week is reporting an expected 28,000 jobs cut for Houston's Oil giants in 2015.

Baker Hughes has already cut 7,000
BP has cut 6,000 in Houston
Schulemberger 9,000 w/ another 11,000 expected

These will have tremendous ripple effects. Houston is already reeling. The economy by 2016 may not look to pretty.

Those are world-wide layoffs for Baker Hughes, but Halliburton is acquiring them so that was expected.

BP expects a $1B restructuring charge, which mostly was the end result of that gulf accident. BP had roughly $43B in divestments in the last 18 months.

Oil Service companies are heavily weighted to new drilling / well construction more so than workovers, so they take hits in price reductions and layoffs across the world as drilling rigs get laid down.

At the end of the day, exploration and new drilling will be tabled under this oil supply glut.

 

[TexShoe]

we just need to take over Saudi Arabia and call it a day.

 

[Soonerheart]

Very good posting JMISASANO !



But I have zero confidence in Boren's ability's to recognize when he should act based on economic conditions as they relate to the price of oil,our state's economy and the OU booster / alumni base.



Twice Boren has let a golden opportunity's slip though his hands to not only improve OU football facilities but the university's its self. I personally expressed my concerns about this to very high ranking OU officials in early 2008 and how they should be better capitalizing on $ 100 + oil.



The fact that Boren so adamantly denied the Murdock report and now that we have several media reports saying the stadium project is going to be delayed can IMO only mean that Boren lied,,,, because I refuse to believe that Boren did not know the disposition of a $ 370 million dollar project on his campus.



This along with other issues IMO is a very clear indication that Boren's best OU days are behind him and that it's time to start looking for fresh and independent OU leadership.

This post was edited on 1/31 2:04 PM by Soonerheart

 

[WhyNotaSooner]

Originally posted by JMISASANO:

Originally posted by WhyNotaSooner:
Buisness Week is reporting an expected 28,000 jobs cut for Houston's Oil giants in 2015.

Baker Hughes has already cut 7,000
BP has cut 6,000 in Houston
Schulemberger 9,000 w/ another 11,000 expected

These will have tremendous ripple effects. Houston is already reeling. The economy by 2016 may not look to pretty.

Those are world-wide layoffs for Baker Hughes, but Halliburton is acquiring them so that was expected.

BP expects a $1B restructuring charge, which mostly was the end result of that gulf accident. BP had roughly $43B in divestments in the last 18 months.

Oil Service companies are heavily weighted to new drilling / well construction more so than workovers, so they take hits in price reductions and layoffs across the world as drilling rigs get laid down.

At the end of the day, exploration and new drilling will be tabled under this oil supply glut.

Good post. I agree with you on the Haliburton acquisition fo Baker Hughes and it's subsequent lay offs. These oil guys are forward thinkers. What's to be watched is if the layoffs continue quarter after quarter. That acquisition is tied directly to the weakness of the oil industry. There's an economic shift in the oil industry and the stronger of the giants will survive and grow as merges & acquisitions take place. Some will own and one will be owned. OTC is in May. I suspect by then we would see and hear more on future direction & activities through some of the speakers.


This post was edited on 1/31 11:24 PM by WhyNotaSooner

 

[gsxrace01]

if oil prices do not rebound significantly within the year it will certainly spell economic trouble for oklahoma.. is this mary fallin's recession proof economy?

 

[JMISASANO]

Originally posted by gsxrace01:

if oil prices do not rebound significantly within the year it will certainly spell economic trouble for oklahoma.. is this mary fallin's recession proof economy?

What's your price point rebound?

I'm just curious, what's the pulse on the street for a price point to NOT spell economic trouble to certain individuals?

I just ran these numbers out of curiousity year to year.

WTI price versus U.S. crude and condensate production versus World crude production

Jan 2000 = $37.81 / 5.821M bpd / 68.526M bpd

Jan 2001 = $39.67 / 5.801M bpd / 68.131M bpd

Jan 2002 = $26.08 / 5.744M bpd / 67.290M bpd

Jan 2003 = $42.56 / 5.649M bpd / 69.460M bpd

Jan 2004 = $43.45 / 5.440M bpd / 72.595M bpd

Jan 2005 = $57.66 / 5.181M bpd / 73.866M bpd

Jan 2006 = $77.56 / 5.087M bpd / 73.477M bpd

Jan 2007 = $63.30 / 5.076M bpd / 73.164M bpd

Jan 2008 = $103.00 / 5.000M bpd / 74.016M bpd

Jan 2009 = $46.41 / 5.349M bpd / 72.670M bpd

Jan 2010 = $84.79 / 5.481M bpd / 74.459M bpd

Jan 2011 = $95.32 / 5.644M bpd / 74.533M bpd

Jan 2012 = $104.00 / 6.496M bpd / 75.959M bpd

Jan 2013 = $99.90 / 7.441M bpd / 76.047M bpd

Jan 2014 = $97.94 / 8.002M bpd / 77.247M bpd

Jan 2015 = $48.24 / 9.100M bpd / M bpd

U.S. oil production increased 49% from 2008 to 2013.

Production is expected to average 9.3M bpd in 2015 and 9.5M bpd in 2016.

Highest was 1970 at 9.6M bpd.


Now, you know who is supplying and why this glut is happening.

I also want to point out something I referred to trading speculation earlier in another thread with ScottsdaleSooner. Speculation swings high and low. Why does an additional 1M bpd occur from 2014 to 2015, but the price cut in half?

Why didn't that happen from 2012 to 2013? Why didn't that happen from 2013 to 2014?

Sure demand has most everything to do with it, but was the $99.90 price point in 2013 driven from trading speculation of futures that OPEC would naturally just cut production to maintain that price point?

Is the current price of $48.24 in January just reverse speculation or are physical inventories accountable to not created high speculation? One thing I do know is the mess in the middle east isn't scary oil futures and there still a ton of conventional oil offline over there because of their mess.

Look at 2008 to 2009, which was hammered by global economy demand speculation. Perhaps, future trading an over-speculated loaded price point?

Perhaps the speculation of natural disasters, political unrest, etc, stopped intimidating analysts that better understand unconventional and conventional, OPEC and non-OPEC, production risks, breakeven points and physical inventories? Those factors traditionally have driven oil futures.


The old saying, "it's never as bad or good as it appears" has always been a fact of speculation trading crude oil futures.







This post was edited on 2/1 1:47 PM by JMISASANO

 

[JMISASANO]

Talk about wanting to drive SPECULATION on oil futures.

OPEC Sees Oil Prices Exploding to $200 a Barrel[/B]
By Matt DiLallo | More Articles
January 31, 2015 | Comments (75)


Right now the oil market is totally focused on finding a bottom for oil prices. However, according to OPEC's Secretary-General Abdulla al-Badri we've already hit bottom. Not only that, but he sees a real possibility that oil prices could explode higher to upwards of $200 per barrel in the future. He's far from the only one that sees a return of triple-digit oil prices.


Finding a bottom

According to the Secretary-General, the oil market doesn't need to look for oil prices to bottom as the market has already bottomed. Instead, he offered quite bullish comments by saying, "Now the prices are around $45-$55, and I think maybe they [have] reached the bottom and we [will] see some rebound very soon." Now, normally that type of remark would be just another layer of noise, but this is coming from OPEC's Secretary-General so it comes with a lot of weight behind it.


That said, he's not saying that OPEC will come in and rescue the oil market by reversing its previous decision to hold steady on production. Instead, he sees the signs that the oil market is self-correcting as oil companies have made deep cuts to spending, which will eventually lead to lower production growth. Further, the rig count in the U.S. is plunging, which is usually a key to a bottom in oil prices. However, in the midst of cutting back as the industry works through the current oversupply the Secretary-General is now warning that the industry is putting future oil supplies at risk by under investing today.


Underinvestment leads to a shortage

The Secretary-General said that, "if you don't invest in oil and gas, you will see more than $200" when it comes to future oil prices. While he didn't give a timeframe, he did note the correlation between investment and future production. This is because oil production naturally declines and oil companies need to invest in new production to not only replace this decline in production from legacy oil fields but to add new production to meet growing demand. However, oil companies are reluctant to invest in new production as their cash flows decline.


Over time this could become a problem as oil fields around the world naturally decline by an average of about 5% per year. As we see in this chart from a Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) investor presentation, in order to overcome this decline oil companies need to develop about 200 billion barrels of oil supplies over the next decade and a half just to meet demand.


This post was edited on 2/1 10:18 AM by JMISASANO

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/31/opec-sees-oil-prices-exploding-to-200-a-barrel.aspx

 

[Oklabama]

If the cost per gallon for gasoline jumps up over $3.50, we will have other negative economic issues to deal with in the automobile industry. New retails sales decreased from 16M to 10M during 2007 - 2009. Used car values dropped to an all time low on the preowned vehicle index, which was driven by the high cost of gas, low used vehicle values and years of excessive loan to value percentages by lenders. The OEM domestic and foreign carmakers failed to heed the market signs that clearly suggested that consumers' buying trends would change from SUV/trucks to more fuel efficient vehicles. Therefore, there was a tremendous number of unwanted new vehicles sitting on franchise dealer lots that no one wanted. And, the OEMs weren't perpared for the public's demand for the smaller fuel efficient vehicles. So those that could buy didn't, and there were too many "buyers" that were too much under water on their present loans because of the decrease in the value of their vehicle and for financing as much as 50% over the new vehicle's MSRP. So gas prices at the pump are extremely important for the economy overall. The automobile industry is just an example because the industry employs millions. O&G touches everything.

 

[iasooner1]

Originally posted by gsxrace01:

"fighting a racially biased, insane, unwinnable war"

gsx you know I love you in the Christian sense of the word, in spite of your beliefs (or lack thereof: thought for the day, Atheism is just another religion) but what the hell does race have to do with these neanderthals that declared war against the West and anything or person that stands in their way?

Like GW said back when we sort of had a spine in this country, "you're either for us or against us" and we have no other choice than to either win or die against INTERNATIONAL RADICAL ISLAM.

 

[JMISASANO]

I may get my wish for $75 oil, so here's hoping for luckier than good.

Interesting read...

I agree with the below unless some force majeure factors enter the equation.



EIA: Global Oil Supply to Outpace Demand in 2015[/B]

Government Agency Sees Brent Crude Averaging $57.58 a Barrel in 2015, $75 in 2016[/B]

By NICOLE FRIEDMAN
Jan. 13, 2015 1:22 p.m. ET
3 COMMENTS

NEW YORK-Government forecasters expect oil prices to stay subdued through 2016 as global supplies exceed demand.


The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its monthly short-term energy outlook released Tuesday, called for benchmark U.S. crude-oil prices to average $54.58 a barrel this year, down from $93.26 a barrel in 2014. In December, the agency said U.S. prices would average $62.75 this year.


The agency released estimates for 2016 for the first time. Next year, the agency expects U.S. prices to average $71 a barrel.


For Brent, the global benchmark, the EIA expects prices to average $57.58 a barrel in 2015 and $75 a barrel in 2016, down from $99.02 a barrel last year. In December, the agency called for a price average of $68.08 a barrel this year.


Oil prices have plunged in recent months on concerns about a global glut of oil. Front-month U.S. futures prices are currently trading around $45 a barrel, while Brent prices are near $46 a barrel.

Advertisement


"EIA expects global oil inventories to continue to build in 2015, keeping downward pressure on oil prices," the agency said in the report. The agency expects prices to average $46 a barrel for the U.S. benchmark and $49 a barrel for Brent in January and February before rising through the rest of the year.


The EIA expects global oil supplies to exceed demand this year and next. The agency expects international supplies to average 92.97 million barrels a day in 2015, while consumption is projected to average 92.39 million barrels a day. In 2016, the EIA expects oil supplies of 93.51 million barrels a day and consumption of 93.42 million barrels a day.


In the U.S., production hit 9.15 million barrels a day in December, the highest monthly level since February 1986, the EIA said.


Some U.S. producers have cut spending on production because of lower oil prices, but U.S. output is still expected to grow. U.S. production has boomed in recent years as new technologies have enabled producers to access supplies trapped in shale-oil fields.


The EIA called for total U.S. crude production to rise from 8.67 million barrels a day in 2014 to 9.31 million barrels a day in

2015 and 9.53 million barrels a day in 2016.


The forecast 2016 production would represent the highest level of annual average oil production since it peaked in 1970, the
EIA said.


Consumption is also forecast to rise. The EIA called for U.S. oil consumption to average 19.32 million barrels a day this year, up from 19.06 million barrels a day last year, and 19.43 million barrels a day next year.


The agency cut its forecast for the retail price for regular grade gasoline, including taxes, this year from $2.60 a gallon to $2.33 a gallon. In 2016, the agency expects prices to average $2.72 a gallon.


The average U.S. household will spend $750 less on gasoline this year than last year, the agency said.




This post was edited on 2/1 1:07 PM by JMISASANO

http://www.wsj.com/articles/eia-global-oil-supply-to-outpace-demand-in-2015-1421173344

 

[barkingwater2000]

The only people who like $3.50 gas are those in the oil business. I love being able to fill up my truck for under $50 right now.

 

[Oklabama]

You and everybody else, BW.

 

[Soonerheart]

Originally posted by barkingwater2000:
The only people who like $3.50 gas are those in the oil business. I love being able to fill up my truck for under $50 right now.

^Not true at all!


People in the oil bussness….at least the smart ones don't
want extremely high oil prices much more than they want the extremely low
prices……Why? Because nothing cures high prices better than high prices and nothing
cures low prices better than low prices.




This is what sets up the boom's and bust's that you can't do
anything to prevent…


Smart people learn how to profit from this by making smart timely
investments…. Stop looking only at the moment and be smart and learn how to
take better control over your life, to a point where gasoline prices won't
impact you negatively.

 

[JMISASANO]

Originally posted by Soonerheart:

Originally posted by barkingwater2000:
The only people who like $3.50 gas are those in the oil business. I love being able to fill up my truck for under $50 right now.

^Not true at all!


People in the oil bussness….at least the smart ones don't
want extremely high oil prices much more than they want the extremely low
prices……Why? Because nothing cures high prices better than high prices and nothing
cures low prices better than low prices.



This is what sets up the boom's and bust's that you can't do
anything to prevent…


Smart people learn how to profit from this by making smart timely
investments…. Stop looking only at the moment and be smart and learn how to
take better control over your life, to a point where gasoline prices won't
impact you negatively.

$75 is a win-win imho.

 

[Oklabama]

That may be true, SoonerHeart, but 90% of the nation likes $2 - $2.25 per gallon. Most of the population doesn't even invest or if they do, they spread their risks among mutual funds has have little effect on O&G. It's amazing how so many employees fail to participate in their company's 401k plans. Savvy investors can certainly do well in O&G when the market is in an advantageous cycle. No doubt.

 

[gsxrace01]

Originally posted by iasooner1:

Originally posted by gsxrace01:

"fighting a racially biased, insane, unwinnable war"

gsx you know I love you in the Christian sense of the word, in spite of your beliefs (or lack thereof: thought for the day, Atheism is just another religion) but what the hell does race have to do with these neanderthals that declared war against the West and anything or person that stands in their way?

Like GW said back when we sort of had a spine in this country, "you're either for us or against us" and we have no other choice than to either win or die against INTERNATIONAL RADICAL ISLAM.

the war on hemp and marijuana

Jesus this, moses that Abraham hit me with a wiffle ball bat

 

[gsxrace01]

Originally posted by JMISASANO:


I may get my wish for $75 oil, so here's hoping for luckier than good.

Interesting read...

I agree with the below unless some force majeure factors enter the equation.




EIA: Global Oil Supply to Outpace Demand in 2015[/B]


Government Agency Sees Brent Crude Averaging $57.58 a Barrel in 2015, $75 in 2016[/B]

By NICOLE FRIEDMAN

Jan. 13, 2015 1:22 p.m. ET

3 COMMENTS


NEW YORK-Government forecasters expect oil prices to stay subdued through 2016 as global supplies exceed demand.



The U.S. Energy Information Administration, in its monthly short-term energy outlook released Tuesday, called for benchmark U.S. crude-oil prices to average $54.58 a barrel this year, down from $93.26 a barrel in 2014. In December, the agency said U.S. prices would average $62.75 this year.



The agency released estimates for 2016 for the first time. Next year, the agency expects U.S. prices to average $71 a barrel.



For Brent, the global benchmark, the EIA expects prices to average $57.58 a barrel in 2015 and $75 a barrel in 2016, down from $99.02 a barrel last year. In December, the agency called for a price average of $68.08 a barrel this year.



Oil prices have plunged in recent months on concerns about a global glut of oil. Front-month U.S. futures prices are currently trading around $45 a barrel, while Brent prices are near $46 a barrel.


Advertisement



"EIA expects global oil inventories to continue to build in 2015, keeping downward pressure on oil prices," the agency said in the report. The agency expects prices to average $46 a barrel for the U.S. benchmark and $49 a barrel for Brent in January and February before rising through the rest of the year.



The EIA expects global oil supplies to exceed demand this year and next. The agency expects international supplies to average 92.97 million barrels a day in 2015, while consumption is projected to average 92.39 million barrels a day. In 2016, the EIA expects oil supplies of 93.51 million barrels a day and consumption of 93.42 million barrels a day.



In the U.S., production hit 9.15 million barrels a day in December, the highest monthly level since February 1986, the EIA said.



Some U.S. producers have cut spending on production because of lower oil prices, but U.S. output is still expected to grow. U.S. production has boomed in recent years as new technologies have enabled producers to access supplies trapped in shale-oil fields.



The EIA called for total U.S. crude production to rise from 8.67 million barrels a day in 2014 to 9.31 million barrels a day in

2015 and 9.53 million barrels a day in 2016.



The forecast 2016 production would represent the highest level of annual average oil production since it peaked in 1970, the
EIA said.



Consumption is also forecast to rise. The EIA called for U.S. oil consumption to average 19.32 million barrels a day this year, up from 19.06 million barrels a day last year, and 19.43 million barrels a day next year.



The agency cut its forecast for the retail price for regular grade gasoline, including taxes, this year from $2.60 a gallon to $2.33 a gallon. In 2016, the agency expects prices to average $2.72 a gallon.



The average U.S. household will spend $750 less on gasoline this year than last year, the agency said.






This post was edited on 2/1 1:07 PM by JMISASANO

i hope so,most of the guys i build cars for work in the oil field,im sure they want 150 a barrel tho.

 

[barkingwater2000]

Well unlike you most people don't like paying $3.50 a gallon. Smart people will refrain from taking long vacations and think twice before making that weekend trip. High gas prices hurt the average American family and therefore has a negative impact on the overall economy. As I said, those working in the oil field love it and have been making a killing the last several years.

 

[Drewcristo78]

Originally posted by barkingwater2000:
Well unlike you most people don't like paying $3.50 a gallon. Smart people will refrain from taking long vacations and think twice before making that weekend trip. High gas prices hurt the average American family and therefore has a negative impact on the overall economy. As I said, those working in the oil field love it and have been making a killing the last several years.

You're in Oklahoma bro! Call it a victory tax and move on.

 

[Soonersincefitty]

Oh yeah...loving it.

I drive around aimlessly for hours on end in my 14 MPG pickup. Get down to a quarter tank then fill her up again.
Increasing my carbon footprint of course and burning gasoline for no real reason at all...

What a country!

 

[barkingwater2000]

Fitty come on now we all know you drive a mo pad

 

[Soonerheart]

Originally posted by barkingwater2000:
Well unlike you most people don't like paying $3.50 a gallon. Smart people will refrain from taking long vacations and think twice before making that weekend trip. High gas prices hurt the average American family and therefore has a negative impact on the overall economy. As I said, those working in the oil field love it and have been making a killing the last several years.

Actually smart people learn to profit from it by enough that
they don't bat an eye at high gasoline prices and long vacations in the Humvee….
Stop acting like a helpless fool! ,,,, You are the boss of you and as such the quality
of your decisions dictates your lot in life, not the oil companies.

 

[Soonerheart]

Originally posted by JMISASANO:

Originally posted by Soonerheart:

Originally posted by barkingwater2000:
The only people who like $3.50 gas are those in the oil business. I love being able to fill up my truck for under $50 right now.

^Not true at all!


People in the oil bussness….at least the smart ones don't
want extremely high oil prices much more than they want the extremely low
prices……Why? Because nothing cures high prices better than high prices and nothing
cures low prices better than low prices.


This is what sets up the boom's and bust's that you can't do
anything to prevent…


Smart people learn how to profit from this by making smart timely
investments…. Stop looking only at the moment and be smart and learn how to
take better control over your life, to a point where gasoline prices won't
impact you negatively.

$75 is a win-win imho.

IMHO the happy number is about $80…. But the important thing is you get the point!


For those who don't understand…… oil prices need to be high enough that they still encourage new drilling so that we don't have shortages and large price spike later where we would see demand destruction and economic slowdowns / recessions…. Oil prices need to stay low enough to support a heathy national economy…. This is the sweet spot that when found works well for all. Including for OU stadium improvements.

This post was edited on 2/1 6:38 PM by Soonerheart

 

[barkingwater2000]

Oh I wish we were all as smart as soonerheart lol I'm invested in oil companies as much as anyone but I also understand that paying over $3 per gallon is hurtful to a lot of people...many of whom are just as smart as you soonerheart. Wanting $100 barrel gas is ridiculous in my opinion because it hurts way too many everyday people.

 

[Yankees03]

screw the oil companies. They certainly had no issue when they are making billions and billions of dollars the past few years. It can get down to a dollar a gallon for all i care.

 

[Soonerheart]

Originally posted by barkingwater2000:
Oh I wish we were all as smart as soonerheart lol I'm invested in oil companies as much as anyone but I also understand that paying over $3 per gallon is hurtful to a lot of people...many of whom are just as smart as you soonerheart. Wanting $100 barrel gas is ridiculous in my opinion because it hurts way too many everyday people.

Well, it's very apparent that you're either not smart enough to read very well or you have decided that its ok to lie… because I said $80 was the sweet spot for oil and it is a great place for oil prices…..And if your really were as invested in oil companies as much as anyone the prices of gasoline that you personally pay would be the furthest thing from your mind..


And since when have we ever had " $100 barrel gas"…. It doesn't ook like you understand the industry terminology very well at all. :

PS: I sold all most all of my energy stocks this past summer and your still invested…… LOL

This post was edited on 2/1 11:21 PM by Soonerheart

 

[Soonerheart]

Originally posted by Yankees03:
screw the oil companies. They certainly had no issue when they are making billions and billions of dollars the past few years. It can get down to a dollar a gallon for all i care.

Do you understand that the US based oil company's haven't control the prices of crude oil?



Crude prices have historically been manipulated by OPEC members…… They have raised and lower their own
production many, many times to meet their own needs and to set the desired price!


If it persists much longer the current down turn will cause devastation to the Oklahoma economy... This includes OU academics and OU sports programs……

Since so much of our state economy is based on oil and NG, to say that you don't care if it got down to a dollar a gallon means that you don't care if we had depression like failures at OU and state wide in Oklahoma!
That's the hard truth of it, like it or not!




This post was edited on 2/1 11:19 PM by Soonerheart

 

[Yankees03]

I realize all of this heart, however I care more about the middle class people in Oklahoma and that they have enough money to drive to work, put food on the table, etc. rather than whats going on with OU and if they will be able to add 5000 more seats. Sorry, thats just me. Perhaps the 1.00 comment was a little excessive, however im pretty happy with the prices around the 1.75 to 2.00 range.

 

[barkingwater2000]

Having low gas prices saves everyone that drives everyday a lot of money. They can spend that money on other things that also contribute to the economy. These big oil guys have made a killing the last several years so I have little sympathy. If people get laid off then they will just have to find another job like everyone else does and adjust their lifestyle. Its happened to most of us

Heart.....quit playing semantics out of desperation. We both know a barrel of oil was over $100 last year.

This post was edited on 2/2 12:13 AM by barkingwater2000

 

[Soonerheart]

Originally posted by Yankees03:
I realize all of this heart, however I care more about the middle class people in Oklahoma and that they have enough money to drive to work, put food on the table, etc. rather than whats going on with OU and if they will be able to add 5000 more seats. Sorry, thats just me. Perhaps the 1.00 comment was a little excessive, however im pretty happy with the prices around the 1.75 to 2.00 range.

The middle classes of
Oklahoma are best served by moderate oil prices… not one dollar a gallon gasoline…Why
because there are hundreds of thousands of middle class Oklahoma's directly or
indirectly involved doing just about any job we could think of.




Cheap crude will eventually send hundreds of thousands of Oklahoma's
to of the unemployment lines, to the poor house and there will be an out
migration of tens of thousands of people this is impacting the middle
classes the most by far.




There is a lack of comprehension
about the full devastation that's in play here for OU, our state to the common
man. We are talking great depression
like statistics if the downturn continues to grow worse and persist.




I don't think there are a lot of people who really understand
how much bigger the oil and NG industry is in Oklahoma than other major Oklahoma
employers such as Tinker Air Force base which is dwarfed in size and average
income per worker.


On top of all this one of Oklahoma's other industries; agriculture
is over all not doing well due to drought and poor crop prices…

 

[Soonerheart]

This is about 2 years old or so

When indirect impacts are included, employment is equivalent
to 465,616 full and part-time jobs, $65 billion in gross state product, and
$48.1 billion in employee/self-employed earnings. That's the equivalent of one
out of every five jobs in the state, and one out of every three dollars of
gross state product.




The industry represents 5% of the state's total workforce.
The state added just over 60,000 private sector jobs between 2010 and 2012, and
nearly 25% of those came directly from exploration and production operations.

If the definition of the industry is expanded to include other aspects of the
value chain, that number rises to more than 40%. These jobs have an average
compensation of $133,595, when wage and salary and self-employed are averaged.
That is well above (and growing faster than) the state average.

 

[Yankees03]

soonerheart do you mind if i ask what you do for a living?

 

[WhyNotaSooner]

Originally posted by JMISASANO:

Of course, this is most likely driven on speculation as drilling rigs get stacked and Big Oil continues to announce major cuts in exploration and development.

Conoco to cut $5B alone this year.

456 rigs have been stacked since this time last year, 20%.

I keep reading 20% is the cuts in oil services pricing as well, which appears to be the magic number around the industry. Cut 20% off of inflated salary scales and perhaps this industry will right size itself to hard numbers that can sustain an operation with a strong balance of highly qualified oil and gas professionals instead of private equity start-ups that are dipping their toes in the water just to test it, driving up competition for experienced personnel.

Hopefully, WTI will roll through $55 by the end of Q2, then roll into $60 by the end of Q4.

Once oil rolls into $65 to $70, the stadium upgrades will catch momentum again even if it settles around $75 imo.

I can handle a $75 price point to keep O&G jobs responsibly stable and the overall nation's economy stable.

Feedstock will be attractive for petrochemicals, airlines, land transports and vacationers looking to fill up.

Coal perhaps can return to the markets with their technologies as well.

I'm optimistic about the future, until China shale plays get online with their cheap labor, raw materials and manufacturing by 2025. Hopefully, the stadium will be built by then.

Oil prices rocket by nearly $4 a barrelNew York (AFP) - Oil prices surged by nearly $4 a barrel in late trade Friday, rebounding from six-year lows on month-end covering and signs the industry is quickly tightening exploration activities.


Oil surges 8 percent as U.S. rig count plunges, shorts scramble Reuters


At the end of the session, WTI closed at $48.24, a gain of $3.71 from Thursday.


In London, Brent North Sea crude for March followed a similar trajectory, trading slightly lower over most of the session and then soaring more than $4. The contract closed at $52.99 a barrel, a gain of $3.46.


Traders said that there was a lot of short-covering by big investors on the final trading day of the month that likely spurred the spike.


"The commodity funds have been heavily short on this market. It's the end of the month, and there is a little bit of a short-covering rally," said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group.


"Yesterday, when oil went below $44, it couldn't follow through and it reversed course during the day, which is a signal for a bottom."


Also giving support were more signs of sharp cutbacks in the oil industry, which could portend a tighter market in the medium term.


Chevron said it would cut exploration and development spending by $5 billion this year.[/B]


And the Baker Hughes North America rig count, which gauges activity in the United States, Canada and Gulf of Mexico oil and gas fields, took a sharp fall over the past week, dropping by 128 rigs to 1,937. That compared with 2,393 a year ago.


"That's the lowest level we've seen in a couple of years. Perhaps that means tighter supplies in the future," said Flynn.





This post was edited on 1/31 7:51 AM by JMISASANO

The whole agrument of screw the oil companies and lower gas prices is better for the middle class is actually skewed. Yes, excessive prices at the pump can hurt the avg American, but the facts show that the avg American will continue to overpay for other goods & services from overpriced coffee at Starbucks to the latest tech widget including phones and even cable/satellite TV. Having stable pricing is needed and a goal but it isn't something that the consumer can control. But they can control other goods and services though. Something to keep in mind, the US has just begun to pull out of a major recession and the largest % of jobs created were those in the Oil & Gas sectors. Not the shovel ready crap the gov't bought and paid for.

Yankee I have no idea what you do for a living, but if the Oil industry continues to have dwindling prices, it most likely will effect you eventually. The trickle down and ripple effect will kick in. Oklahoma's revenues, commerce, and employment are supported by Oil & Gas and the Military w/ bases scattered statewide. Drastic reductions in one or both will eventually take it's effect throughout the state. BTW, throughout my travels across the country, Oklahoma has the cheapest gas prices. I've paid as high as $4.39 gallon for regular.

 

[Senior Sooner]

Originally posted by Oklabama:
That may be true, SoonerHeart, but 90% of the nation likes $2 - $2.25 per gallon. Most of the population doesn't even invest or if they do, they spread their risks among mutual funds has have little effect on O&G.It's amazing how so many employees fail to participate in their company's 401k plans. Savvy investors can certainly do well in O&G when the market is in an advantageous cycle. No doubt.


Oklabama...All of us have our own personal reasons for our Investing patterns...At my age, I recognize my limitations...