In the Broncos-Rams thread, there were some ideas kicked around about Baker's NFL future. I was thinking about it more this morning. (TLDR, Baker should seriously consider staying in LA for another year as a cheap backup)
I was thinking more about future homes for Baker if he finishes the season strong. He's in a unique position. 90% of NFL players are shooting for that second contract and the chance to get paid. For a lot of them, it may be there one shot a big payday, so it's often down to the highest bidder.
Baker's rookie contract gives him the ability to be selective in his next spot. He can look short term for lower pay (maybe a 2-year deal) and then potentially get a bigger/longer deal.
Assuming he finishes strong with the Rams, it's a 5 game resume that shows teams he can be successful in the right situations. I love Bake, so it's not a slight when I say his NFL upside/comp is a rich man's Kirk Cousins. A very good QB that can produce in the right situation. (BTW, that's no slight on him at all. There are maybe 5 guys on the planet who can carry a franchise).
Most need to have the coaching, personnel, and scheme to be successful. Jalen Hurts in Philly is an MVP candidate. Jalen Hurts on the Falcons may have been out of the league by next year.
I personally think his best option is to the stay with the Rams as a backup. Get a full season under McVay and the very real possibility that Stafford goes down and you get can slide in with a great coaching staff and Rams team that'll be healthy again.
But if he hit the market, I hope he would limit it to good situations. No clown franchises. No hot-seat coaches. No slapdick OC's. No decrepit rosters that are 2-3 years from being competitive.
So who could that be?
NFC East - Dallas, Philly and NY have their QBs locked up. Washington is about to go through an ownership change and likely big turnover.
NFC South - Carolina is out for obvious reasons. Atlanta is a mess. Tampa Bay (assuming Brady hangs it up) and New Orleans are interesting. Both have good pieces. The coaching has dropped from Arians and Peyton, but still intriguing.
NFC North - All of the teams are settled at QB.
NFC West - SF and AZ are set. The Niners have invested in Lance and if he doesn't work, can win with Purdy if Jimmy G bolts. Seattle will likely get a top 3 pick from the Broncos and could get a QB. Seattle is likely following the path for their other Super Bowls under Pete. Build a team with lots of picks and a rookie QB. I could argue a discount Baker probably will be better in 23 than a rookie. But they will feel the upside of a Young or Stroud is worth it.
AFC East - The Bills are set. The Jets, Dolphins and Pats all have QBs on rookie deals already. Tua had his detractors, but has put up a really good season. The Jets and Pats are interesting. Zach Wilson has struggled. Mike White has shown that offense can hum with good QB play....but do they think Mike is the guy long term. NY is a tough place to play, but it seems like something the old Baker would relish. Mac Jones is mediocre. And Bill made a rare blunder by a lifelong defensive guy OC. Word is Bill is looking at Bill O'Brien to come back. IMO, too many question marks. And Bill's resume with/without Brady makes you question how much of the genius was having the GOAT as a QB. (And at a discount!!)
AFC South - Jags have a franchise QB. Texans are a total rebuild. Titans are invested in Tannehill. Colts are probably thinking rebuild with a rookie. They passed on Baker before at a deep discount. I don't know if five games with the Rams will change their mind.
AFC North - Ravens, Bengals and Browns (haha) have their franchise guys. The Steelers are hoping things pan out with Pickett.
AFC West - Chiefs, Chargers, Vegas and Broncos have their franchise guy. Though the Broncos already have buyer's remorse and would probably love Baker on a cheap deal if they could do it all over again.
When you look at the landscape and possibly Tampa Bay and New Orleans being your best options to prove yourself for another contract. The Jets and Pats could be interesting. There just aren't a lot of options out there. With Stafford's age and health, hanging around a year or two and trying to bogart that gig may be the best bet.
I was thinking more about future homes for Baker if he finishes the season strong. He's in a unique position. 90% of NFL players are shooting for that second contract and the chance to get paid. For a lot of them, it may be there one shot a big payday, so it's often down to the highest bidder.
Baker's rookie contract gives him the ability to be selective in his next spot. He can look short term for lower pay (maybe a 2-year deal) and then potentially get a bigger/longer deal.
Assuming he finishes strong with the Rams, it's a 5 game resume that shows teams he can be successful in the right situations. I love Bake, so it's not a slight when I say his NFL upside/comp is a rich man's Kirk Cousins. A very good QB that can produce in the right situation. (BTW, that's no slight on him at all. There are maybe 5 guys on the planet who can carry a franchise).
Most need to have the coaching, personnel, and scheme to be successful. Jalen Hurts in Philly is an MVP candidate. Jalen Hurts on the Falcons may have been out of the league by next year.
I personally think his best option is to the stay with the Rams as a backup. Get a full season under McVay and the very real possibility that Stafford goes down and you get can slide in with a great coaching staff and Rams team that'll be healthy again.
But if he hit the market, I hope he would limit it to good situations. No clown franchises. No hot-seat coaches. No slapdick OC's. No decrepit rosters that are 2-3 years from being competitive.
So who could that be?
NFC East - Dallas, Philly and NY have their QBs locked up. Washington is about to go through an ownership change and likely big turnover.
NFC South - Carolina is out for obvious reasons. Atlanta is a mess. Tampa Bay (assuming Brady hangs it up) and New Orleans are interesting. Both have good pieces. The coaching has dropped from Arians and Peyton, but still intriguing.
NFC North - All of the teams are settled at QB.
NFC West - SF and AZ are set. The Niners have invested in Lance and if he doesn't work, can win with Purdy if Jimmy G bolts. Seattle will likely get a top 3 pick from the Broncos and could get a QB. Seattle is likely following the path for their other Super Bowls under Pete. Build a team with lots of picks and a rookie QB. I could argue a discount Baker probably will be better in 23 than a rookie. But they will feel the upside of a Young or Stroud is worth it.
AFC East - The Bills are set. The Jets, Dolphins and Pats all have QBs on rookie deals already. Tua had his detractors, but has put up a really good season. The Jets and Pats are interesting. Zach Wilson has struggled. Mike White has shown that offense can hum with good QB play....but do they think Mike is the guy long term. NY is a tough place to play, but it seems like something the old Baker would relish. Mac Jones is mediocre. And Bill made a rare blunder by a lifelong defensive guy OC. Word is Bill is looking at Bill O'Brien to come back. IMO, too many question marks. And Bill's resume with/without Brady makes you question how much of the genius was having the GOAT as a QB. (And at a discount!!)
AFC South - Jags have a franchise QB. Texans are a total rebuild. Titans are invested in Tannehill. Colts are probably thinking rebuild with a rookie. They passed on Baker before at a deep discount. I don't know if five games with the Rams will change their mind.
AFC North - Ravens, Bengals and Browns (haha) have their franchise guys. The Steelers are hoping things pan out with Pickett.
AFC West - Chiefs, Chargers, Vegas and Broncos have their franchise guy. Though the Broncos already have buyer's remorse and would probably love Baker on a cheap deal if they could do it all over again.
When you look at the landscape and possibly Tampa Bay and New Orleans being your best options to prove yourself for another contract. The Jets and Pats could be interesting. There just aren't a lot of options out there. With Stafford's age and health, hanging around a year or two and trying to bogart that gig may be the best bet.
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