Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a once-ranked team, last 30 years:
1. 1997 Texas (-110.5 points)
2. 2011 Texas Tech (-107.5)
3. 1999 UCLA (-101.5)
4. 2005 Colorado (-99.5)
5. 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
Having posted SP+ projections against the lines for about a decade now, I can confidently say that the books are smarter than they've ever been. The lines are extraordinarily hard to beat in volume, even compared to just a few years ago. And they have not been able to keep up with the velocity of Oklahoma's collapse.
It's difficult to underachieve against the spread for a particular period of time because the books adjust. If a team is worse than expected, the bar will keep being lowered until equilibrium is found.
Sometimes, however, a collapse comes so swiftly that it takes a while to find equilibrium. Sometimes you pull a John Mackovic. Or a Turner Gill.
Which brings us to Oklahoma.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a once-ranked team, last 30 years:
1. 1997 Texas (-110.5 points)
2. 2011 Texas Tech (-107.5)
3. 1999 UCLA (-101.5)
4. 2005 Colorado (-99.5)
5. 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
Having posted SP+ projections against the lines for about a decade now, I can confidently say that the books are smarter than they've ever been. The lines are extraordinarily hard to beat in volume, even compared to just a few years ago. And they have not been able to keep up with the velocity of Oklahoma's collapse.
Just three weeks ago, Brent Venables' first Sooners team was 3-0 and coming off of a rousing rivalry win at Nebraska. Favored by 10.5 points, the Sooners had won by a 49-14 margin, and they were 13.5-point home favorites against a Kansas State team that had just lost to Tulane.
• Sept. 24: Kansas State (+13.5) 41, Oklahoma 34
• Oct. 1: TCU (+5) 55, Oklahoma 24
• Oct. 8: Texas (-7.5) 49, Oklahoma 0
Expected scoring margin for Oklahoma in these games: plus-11. Actual scoring margin: minus-87.
We can tell how uniquely bad this stretch has been from the company OU is currently keeping. In the past three decades, only four once-ranked teams have underachieved by more over a three-game span. Two of them fired their coaches (1997 Texas, 2005 Colorado), and the other two probably should have. Bob Toledo survived a 4-7 collapse at UCLA in 1999 because he was coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes. But he went just 20-15 over the next three seasons and was fired. Tommy Tuberville and Texas Tech, meanwhile, pulled the same act the following season: The Red Raiders started 6-1, then lost four of five before Tuberville left for Cincinnati.
In all four of these instances, the coaches had been in their jobs for a while, and the sudden collapses were signs of an ending, either soon or on the horizon.
If we focus specifically on teams that collapse in their head coach's first seasons, things get much, much darker.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a first-year coach, past 30 years:
1. Turner Gill, 2010 Kansas (-109)
2. Brian Knorr, 2001 Ohio (-101.5)
3. Vic Koenning, 2000 Wyoming (-98.5)
4. Brent Venables, 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
5. Paul Wulff, 2008 Washington State (-94.5)
6. Ron Dickerson, 1993 Temple (-91)
The five names surrounding Venables' are five of the least successful hires college football has seen in that time span. Those coaches went a combined 38-170 -- the equivalent of 2-10 seasons ad infinitum. None won more than four games in a season.
Granted, none of these men were coaching Oklahoma, either. Those five poor individuals were taking on some of the hardest jobs in the country, and while they performed terribly, the floor in Norman -- where the Sooners have finished under .500 just five times since World War II -- is quite a bit higher.
Still, inclusion on these lists should ring serious alarm bells. There are really no examples of a team collapsing like this and recovering in a short amount of time. If OU is to become the first, the three main sources of collapse must rebound immediately.
1. Quarterback play. This one will be the easiest to fix, if only because Dillon Gabriel is expected back soon. The UCF transfer was still in the concussion protocol and wasn't cleared to play against Texas, and wow, have his replacements proven unready.
In 34 pass attempts since Gabriel was injured against TCU, Davis Beville has gained just 55 net yards -- 88 gained from 13-for-28 passing, minus 33 yards from six sacks -- and thrown an interception. Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) is a per-attempt average that accounts for sacks and applies 20-yard bonuses for touchdowns and 45-yard penalties for interceptions; Gabriel is averaging 9.9 ANY/A, Beville 0.3. A decent case could be made that OU's offense was at its best Saturday when tight end Brayden Willis was behind center as a Wildcat QB.
Oklahoma fans have been clamoring for an appearance from either third-stringer General Booty-- a favorite of the college football internet world for very obvious reasons -- or blue-chip freshman Nick Evers, who threw a single incompletion against Texas. The fact that Venables and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby determined Beville was their best option, however, doesn't suggest a particularly high ceiling for an alternate move.
Again, Gabriel should return soon, potentially against Kansas this coming weekend. He's 23rd in Total QBR, and even if that's not quite the standard Baker Mayfield, et al. set in Norman, it's good.
2. Run defense. Over the past three weeks, OU has allowed 7.2 yards per carry (dead last in FBS at 131st) and a 53% success rate (126th). Worse, it has been beaten by three different types of run games. Kansas State's zone-read game produced 100-yard performances for both quarterback Adrian Martinez(148 yards and four scores) and back Deuce Vaughn(116 yards). TCU offered more spread and speed, and four Horned Frogs backs combined for 242 yards (8.3 per carry) while quarterback Max Dugganripped off a 67-yard sprint for good measure. Texas offered no run threat whatsoever from the quarterback position, but Longhorns backs, led by Bijan Robinson, still had 279 yards (5.8 per carry).
Mind you, the pass defense hasn't covered itself in glory, either. But opponents have been able to pass only when they want to because the run is always there.
3. Defensive disruption. It vanished overnight. The Sooners recorded 13 sacks among 32 tackles for loss in their first three games; in their past three games: one and 12, respectively. Linemen Reggie Grimes II, Ethan Downs, Jalen Redmond, Isaiah Coeand Jonah Laulu had 16.5 TFLs in the first three games, and have four since. There is no push against the run, and with opponents never behind schedule, pass-rushing opportunities have vanished as well. The Sooners have been average on third-and-long (33% conversion rate, 79th in FBS) but an absolute sieve in shorter distances (77% conversion rate on third-and-6 or less, 125th).
Disruption was the one thing former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was guaranteed to create, albeit at the cost of allowing lots of big plays. OU is now giving up as many big plays as it ever has, but with no havoc in return. While plenty of first-year coaches leaned heavily on the portal to prop up weak units, Venables brought in six defensive transfers, four from Group of 5 schools, and none have made significant contributions. One, linebacker T.D. Roof, is missing the season with injury, which has contributed to some massive issues in linebacker depth. If it seems like there are no linebackers on the field when opposing running backs are cutting untouched into the second level of the defense, that is more correct than it should be.
History suggests it's a long road back to respectability for the Sooners. (That has to be the first time I've ever typed that sentence.)
[/ISPOILER]
1. 1997 Texas (-110.5 points)
2. 2011 Texas Tech (-107.5)
3. 1999 UCLA (-101.5)
4. 2005 Colorado (-99.5)
5. 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
Having posted SP+ projections against the lines for about a decade now, I can confidently say that the books are smarter than they've ever been. The lines are extraordinarily hard to beat in volume, even compared to just a few years ago. And they have not been able to keep up with the velocity of Oklahoma's collapse.
What on earth has happened to Oklahoma?
Texas 49, Oklahoma 0It's difficult to underachieve against the spread for a particular period of time because the books adjust. If a team is worse than expected, the bar will keep being lowered until equilibrium is found.
Sometimes, however, a collapse comes so swiftly that it takes a while to find equilibrium. Sometimes you pull a John Mackovic. Or a Turner Gill.
Which brings us to Oklahoma.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a once-ranked team, last 30 years:
1. 1997 Texas (-110.5 points)
2. 2011 Texas Tech (-107.5)
3. 1999 UCLA (-101.5)
4. 2005 Colorado (-99.5)
5. 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
Having posted SP+ projections against the lines for about a decade now, I can confidently say that the books are smarter than they've ever been. The lines are extraordinarily hard to beat in volume, even compared to just a few years ago. And they have not been able to keep up with the velocity of Oklahoma's collapse.
Just three weeks ago, Brent Venables' first Sooners team was 3-0 and coming off of a rousing rivalry win at Nebraska. Favored by 10.5 points, the Sooners had won by a 49-14 margin, and they were 13.5-point home favorites against a Kansas State team that had just lost to Tulane.
• Sept. 24: Kansas State (+13.5) 41, Oklahoma 34
• Oct. 1: TCU (+5) 55, Oklahoma 24
• Oct. 8: Texas (-7.5) 49, Oklahoma 0
Expected scoring margin for Oklahoma in these games: plus-11. Actual scoring margin: minus-87.
We can tell how uniquely bad this stretch has been from the company OU is currently keeping. In the past three decades, only four once-ranked teams have underachieved by more over a three-game span. Two of them fired their coaches (1997 Texas, 2005 Colorado), and the other two probably should have. Bob Toledo survived a 4-7 collapse at UCLA in 1999 because he was coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes. But he went just 20-15 over the next three seasons and was fired. Tommy Tuberville and Texas Tech, meanwhile, pulled the same act the following season: The Red Raiders started 6-1, then lost four of five before Tuberville left for Cincinnati.
In all four of these instances, the coaches had been in their jobs for a while, and the sudden collapses were signs of an ending, either soon or on the horizon.
If we focus specifically on teams that collapse in their head coach's first seasons, things get much, much darker.
Largest underachievement vs. the spread in a three-game span for a first-year coach, past 30 years:
1. Turner Gill, 2010 Kansas (-109)
2. Brian Knorr, 2001 Ohio (-101.5)
3. Vic Koenning, 2000 Wyoming (-98.5)
4. Brent Venables, 2022 Oklahoma (-98)
5. Paul Wulff, 2008 Washington State (-94.5)
6. Ron Dickerson, 1993 Temple (-91)
The five names surrounding Venables' are five of the least successful hires college football has seen in that time span. Those coaches went a combined 38-170 -- the equivalent of 2-10 seasons ad infinitum. None won more than four games in a season.
Granted, none of these men were coaching Oklahoma, either. Those five poor individuals were taking on some of the hardest jobs in the country, and while they performed terribly, the floor in Norman -- where the Sooners have finished under .500 just five times since World War II -- is quite a bit higher.
Still, inclusion on these lists should ring serious alarm bells. There are really no examples of a team collapsing like this and recovering in a short amount of time. If OU is to become the first, the three main sources of collapse must rebound immediately.
1. Quarterback play. This one will be the easiest to fix, if only because Dillon Gabriel is expected back soon. The UCF transfer was still in the concussion protocol and wasn't cleared to play against Texas, and wow, have his replacements proven unready.
In 34 pass attempts since Gabriel was injured against TCU, Davis Beville has gained just 55 net yards -- 88 gained from 13-for-28 passing, minus 33 yards from six sacks -- and thrown an interception. Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) is a per-attempt average that accounts for sacks and applies 20-yard bonuses for touchdowns and 45-yard penalties for interceptions; Gabriel is averaging 9.9 ANY/A, Beville 0.3. A decent case could be made that OU's offense was at its best Saturday when tight end Brayden Willis was behind center as a Wildcat QB.
Oklahoma fans have been clamoring for an appearance from either third-stringer General Booty-- a favorite of the college football internet world for very obvious reasons -- or blue-chip freshman Nick Evers, who threw a single incompletion against Texas. The fact that Venables and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby determined Beville was their best option, however, doesn't suggest a particularly high ceiling for an alternate move.
Again, Gabriel should return soon, potentially against Kansas this coming weekend. He's 23rd in Total QBR, and even if that's not quite the standard Baker Mayfield, et al. set in Norman, it's good.
2. Run defense. Over the past three weeks, OU has allowed 7.2 yards per carry (dead last in FBS at 131st) and a 53% success rate (126th). Worse, it has been beaten by three different types of run games. Kansas State's zone-read game produced 100-yard performances for both quarterback Adrian Martinez(148 yards and four scores) and back Deuce Vaughn(116 yards). TCU offered more spread and speed, and four Horned Frogs backs combined for 242 yards (8.3 per carry) while quarterback Max Dugganripped off a 67-yard sprint for good measure. Texas offered no run threat whatsoever from the quarterback position, but Longhorns backs, led by Bijan Robinson, still had 279 yards (5.8 per carry).
Mind you, the pass defense hasn't covered itself in glory, either. But opponents have been able to pass only when they want to because the run is always there.
3. Defensive disruption. It vanished overnight. The Sooners recorded 13 sacks among 32 tackles for loss in their first three games; in their past three games: one and 12, respectively. Linemen Reggie Grimes II, Ethan Downs, Jalen Redmond, Isaiah Coeand Jonah Laulu had 16.5 TFLs in the first three games, and have four since. There is no push against the run, and with opponents never behind schedule, pass-rushing opportunities have vanished as well. The Sooners have been average on third-and-long (33% conversion rate, 79th in FBS) but an absolute sieve in shorter distances (77% conversion rate on third-and-6 or less, 125th).
Disruption was the one thing former defensive coordinator Alex Grinch was guaranteed to create, albeit at the cost of allowing lots of big plays. OU is now giving up as many big plays as it ever has, but with no havoc in return. While plenty of first-year coaches leaned heavily on the portal to prop up weak units, Venables brought in six defensive transfers, four from Group of 5 schools, and none have made significant contributions. One, linebacker T.D. Roof, is missing the season with injury, which has contributed to some massive issues in linebacker depth. If it seems like there are no linebackers on the field when opposing running backs are cutting untouched into the second level of the defense, that is more correct than it should be.
History suggests it's a long road back to respectability for the Sooners. (That has to be the first time I've ever typed that sentence.)
[/ISPOILER]
