The offseason brings a lot of questions, especially with a new offense. People start throwing around stuff like "so and so will get this many yards". etc. etc. Well I started to actually think about actual yardage. First step is thinking about what type of offense we will run, and where that will rank us in the nation. So I looked at Texas Tech and ECU. Big time stats there, but then again they don't have the RBs that we do. So I looked at West Virginia, not necessarily that offense, but similar #s considering they've had better RBs as of late than Tech/ECU. I'm guessing we'll be fringe Top 10 offense. Bold prediction, but honestly Tech, ECU, WVU, and all the other air raid offenses are in the top 10, why not us? I put us at WVU total yardage from last year, which was like 6497. For ease, I'll say 6500 yards. Which to the mathematically challenged, 500 yards per game (13 games).
Now that I've gotten a somewhat realistic target # of total yards. You gotta think about how the split will be. Again, sticking with West Virginia, they had something like 4100 passing, 2400 rushing. I think our rushing attack will be better than theirs in terms of yards per carry, so I'll say 4000 passing, 2500 rushing.
Now that we got some passing #s, I started looking at yardage by receiver. I looked at how ECU distributed the football, and they had 2 primary recievers with 80-120 receptions a piece, with 800-1200 receiving yards. But they had a big play outside WR, who had 55 receptions for 1016. So I'm guessing even if our offensive stats aren't exactly like ECU (rush/pass split), I still think the distribution will be about the same. So that means 3 big time WRs making up roughly 69% of the receiving yards. Their primary RB got 35 receptions for nearly 300 yards, I imagine that will be Mixon catching the ball. Then they had 4 dudes get 14-25 receptions for 230-260 yards a piece. Then throw in 8 scrubs who got a total of 194 yards. Let's call that 200 for us.
So using that distribution, and a BIG 3 compiling 69% (2760 yards), a RB, and 4 randoms, and 8 scrubs getting 200 off the bottom. This is what I got
Shepard: 1200
Westbrook: 1000
Andrews: 560
Mixon: 300
Neal: 250
Quick: 230
Todd: 130
Mead:130
What cha think? What do you have the receiving yards at? Of course this is just a blind guess, and in a perfect world where there are no injuries.
Now that I've gotten a somewhat realistic target # of total yards. You gotta think about how the split will be. Again, sticking with West Virginia, they had something like 4100 passing, 2400 rushing. I think our rushing attack will be better than theirs in terms of yards per carry, so I'll say 4000 passing, 2500 rushing.
Now that we got some passing #s, I started looking at yardage by receiver. I looked at how ECU distributed the football, and they had 2 primary recievers with 80-120 receptions a piece, with 800-1200 receiving yards. But they had a big play outside WR, who had 55 receptions for 1016. So I'm guessing even if our offensive stats aren't exactly like ECU (rush/pass split), I still think the distribution will be about the same. So that means 3 big time WRs making up roughly 69% of the receiving yards. Their primary RB got 35 receptions for nearly 300 yards, I imagine that will be Mixon catching the ball. Then they had 4 dudes get 14-25 receptions for 230-260 yards a piece. Then throw in 8 scrubs who got a total of 194 yards. Let's call that 200 for us.
So using that distribution, and a BIG 3 compiling 69% (2760 yards), a RB, and 4 randoms, and 8 scrubs getting 200 off the bottom. This is what I got
Shepard: 1200
Westbrook: 1000
Andrews: 560
Mixon: 300
Neal: 250
Quick: 230
Todd: 130
Mead:130
What cha think? What do you have the receiving yards at? Of course this is just a blind guess, and in a perfect world where there are no injuries.
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