The future of football.

[JConXtsy]

Prefer discussion over a poll.

Given the escalating rate of head trauma and permanent, life-threatening damage posed by football (notably the most recent admission from Randle El that he wishes he would have pursued baseball instead) -

Do you think that football is currently in its prime and will drop off from here? Not necessarily a noticeable difference in the quality of players, but might we see elite athletes that would have chosen football 10-20 years ago instead choosing other sports, and therefore we'll see increased skill and competitiveness in other sports.

Do you think that there will be a way to make football safe without killing the quality of play?

Do you think there won't be significant changes (how do you really limit concussions?) but the quality of play will remain the same, football will remain the #1 US sport, and most of the elite athletes will continue pursuing football despite the serious risks?

Will technology ever nullify concussions?
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671752/why-nfl-helmets-will-never-be-concussion-proof


It's not my background, so I can't guess how all of this news will affect the children of low-income families and their desire to pursue football as a means towards wealth. But in my shoes as much as I like football, I can't possibly see myself letting my son play the sport as it stands now.

 

[BillyRay]

Good thread JCon!!!

Do you think that football is currently in its prime and will drop off from here? Not necessarily a noticeable difference in the quality of players, but might we see elite athletes that would have chosen football 10-20 years ago instead choosing other sports, and therefore we'll see increased skill and competitiveness in other sports.

I dunno if football has peaked, but I also don't see it losing any popularity. At least for the near future. I think there will always be plenty of elite athletes that are willing to accept the risks for the allure of millions of dollars awaiting in the NFL. Especially when you consider how much elite talent is coming from families that have literally no other options or legitimate means to make that kind of money. So the money will ensure kids will always be willing to play football. So in that sense, I really don't know if football will ever lose popularity. At least in it's current form.

Do you think that there will be a way to make football safe without killing the quality of play?

This is a tough one. Right now, I don't think this is possible. Football has always been a brutally physical sport. The changes the NFL and college made in recent years you already heard cries from fans about how it's ruining the game. Myself, I don't think the game of football has been ruined yet. But if the powers that be attempt to alter how the game is to the point that hitting is no longer allowed, or limit it to an unreasonable amount, then I don't see that going over very well. The game will likely become a very vanilla, and boring shell of what it is now.

Do you think there won't be significant changes (how do you really limit concussions?) but the quality of play will remain the same, football will remain the #1 US sport, and most of the elite athletes will continue pursuing football despite the serious risks?

I have no doubt that football will always attract elite talent in pursuit of the big money. And let's be honest, the demographic age that are aspiring to get into the NFL are at an age they believe they are bullet-proof and indestructible anyways. Plus, they look at any future health issues as being so many years down the road, that doesn't provide any type of deterrence to the millions and millions of dollars they can make NOW.

Will technology ever nullify concussions?
http://www.fastcodesign.com/1671752/why-nfl-helmets-will-never-be-concussion-proof

I didn't read the entire article, but from my reading about helmet designs and the nature of concussions, I really don't see any helmet design having the ability to nullify concussions. Helmets are primarily designed to protect the skull and prevent skull fractures and other injuries to the outside of the head. Concussions are totally different. Concussions occur from the brain slamming on the interior of the skull from sudden and brutal hits to the head. I really don't see how any helmet design can prevent this. Unless there is way to prevent the brain from moving inside the skull and slamming against the interior surface of the skull, then concussions are always going to be a risk.

And it doesn't always take single, brutal hits to cause brain damage. Steelers OL Mike Webster developed dementia and CTE during his career from of hitting DL with the front of his helmet. I dunno if any of the hits were enough to cause concussions, but the accumulating effect of so many head butts in game after game, year after year took it's toll as his brain kept hitting the inside of his skull.

 

[Schoonerman]

Outstanding post JCon.

I am not sure what you mean by "prime," but if you are referring to fan interest, I don't think there has been any noticeable drop off in fan interest. Definitely not at the college level. I do see NFL attendance decreasing as more and more billion dollar NFL stadiums are being built and teams are making it almost too expensive to buy season tickets.

I am in favor of improving equipment and physical contact to ensure player safety. The game will always be a full-contact game and that will never change. If anything, the game seems to be even more physical and violent as players keep getting bigger, faster and stronger. But ensuring player safety by eliminating head shots, diving at the backs of a players' legs, high-low blocks, horse collar tackles, etc. makes the game better for everyone.

There were those who say the game is becoming "pussified," but I disagree. The game has been evolving and many of the changes have made it a better game, including those rules changes to protect the players. Many players who have been injured have to live with these injuries the rest of their lives and seeing some of these guys hobbled by their injuries is tragic. Yeah, they chose to play the game, but that doesn't mean they have to suffer in their later years because "that's how the game used to be played." I do think the game can and is being made safer and the quality of the game has not been diminished. My biggest gripe right now is the inconsistency of how the targeting rule is applied. Also, what is and what isn't a reception also needs to be improved, especially in the NFL.

Finally, I don't see any significant changes to the game that will change it dramatically. The NFL, colleges and the TV networks (and the other cottage industries tied to football) have too much to lose, so they aren't going to kill the Golden Goose.

 

[LongTimeSooner]

It takes a lot of money to play football compared to other team sports like soccer or basketball. Instead of buying your kid a jersey and a ball, a full junior football gear rig can easily be $500.

The concussion risk will drive the equipment cost up more. As that cost increases, kids will play more sports where spontaneous, cheap games are common.

Football may very well be in a golden age right now.

 

[SoonerTulsan]

Great post JCon. I agree that the risk of injury, especially head injuries, at ALL levels has increased steadily through the years, and it's only going to continue. Having said that, I have NO idea, no clue, how to fix it.

 

[CTOkie]

Great post JCon. I agree that the risk of injury, especially head injuries, at ALL levels has increased steadily through the years, and it's only going to continue. Having said that, I have NO idea, no clue, how to fix it.

Football's popularity is at an all time high, but so are the very serious injuries, above and beyond injuries to arms and legs. Players are getting faster and there's no way to put restrictions on a player's speed. Players are getting bigger too, and maybe there should be some restrictions. Why have linemen weighing over 300 lbs or linebackers over 240-250 lbs (some of whom are in high school) ?
There's also been talk at abolishing kickoffs.
Frankly, I don't see any traction coming in either abolishing football or dramatically changing the the rules because there's too much popularity and money behind it at all levels....and way too much vicarious pleasure by football's fan base in seeing "us" defeat "them".

 

[JConXtsy]

It takes a lot of money to play football compared to other team sports like soccer or basketball. Instead of buying your kid a jersey and a ball, a full junior football gear rig can easily be $500..

I didn't think about this aspect. Kids will still be able to start pickup games without equipment like all of us once did. You're right in that the cost to play as a youth helps determine the interest.
I believe there have been several studies on the socio-economic diversity with every sport, and they obviously give much credence to what you're talking about.

 

[JConXtsy]

I didn't read the entire article, but from my reading about helmet designs and the nature of concussions, I really don't see any helmet design having the ability to nullify concussions.

I found the article, and several others like it, while I was looking for the latest in helmet technology. I figured that someone had to be developing an active-system helmet or something radically more different/advanced rather than the current passive-system helmets. Unfortunately as far as I could tell, the answer was no.
Maybe the only technology difference spoken of in the article was the large benefit there would be to having a soft outer shell; soft, hard, soft instead of the current hard then soft design. The concern there is that the soft outer shells would have significantly greater friction and while reducing concussions would possibly then increase spinal injuries. Scary trade-off.

Something has to give, and I hope it doesn't come at the cost of game play. Right now, I really do think we're looking at the peak of football, and it's only downhill from here without significant CTE prevention and understanding without significant rule changes.

What if they find that CTE is totally preventable with just the proper rest after impact? What if football were something that could only be practiced every other day and head trauma was reduced 90%? Do you all think that we could field a product that is just as desirable to watch with half the practice time as we see now? What if an entire week of rest was required after game action, and therefore games could only be scheduled every 2 weeks. Would fans be OK with a longer season but games further between? Maybe two leagues would be necessary, or have AFC one week and NFC the next.

How many here would start their 8 year old in football today knowing you could likely be shortening their lives to only 30 years, or at least their quality lives to 30 years?

 

[JConXtsy]

Frankly, I don't see any traction coming in either abolishing football or dramatically changing the the rules because there's too much popularity and money behind it at all levels....and way too much vicarious pleasure by football's fan base in seeing "us" defeat "them".

This is probably truth.
I have to believe we'll see dramatic medical advances in CTE treatment and prevention soon. There's just too much money in the business. As the world becomes more and more automated and we worry less and less where are food, water and warmth come from, the economies of the world are rapidly becoming more service and entertainment. We have more time to consume entertainment, and that means more entertainment $. There will be a great drive to keep entertainment (football) alive.

 

[WhyNotaSooner]

Football will always be a tough hard hitting contact sport. All of football is attempting to reduce head contact as the 'targeting rule' is at it's infancy. Let's face it, we have all witnessed targeting in the sport for many, many years. This past season we witnessed it on our players and even an NFL game where two players went at each other the entire game. I can see a time in the near future that 'head targeting' will be outlawed and could cost a player some serious time away from the game. A couple of qtrs here or there isn't going to cut it in the future. But bottom line is bottom-line. Nothing will change until leagues and conferecnes and schools and teams are hit hard financially.

Money is everything in football.

 

[sybarite43]

Boxing still exists. It has been obvious for many years that boxers end up with speech defects, inability to control all of their reactions, and severe mental damage. But, it still exists.

Yet, there are some differences. Boxing has always been a way out of the slums with the majority of boxers coming from recent immigrants (African-Americans not being permitted to compete for some time). We went through periods of champions from the various countries as their immigrants arrived. We saw more of this in boxing, probably because there were no baseball fields in Brooklyn and the Bronx. A lot of the baseball players came from rural America, while a lot of boxers came from the cities.

Boxing is on the decline. Few great athletes are boxers as many go into basketball or football. With the realization that football will probably be forever linked with mental and physical damage of a permanent nature, I think it will follow a similar course as boxing. It will decline in popularity, and most parents will become reluctant to have their kid playing football at eight. We will probably see more of a shift to basketball, soccer, and baseball. But, those with nothing will still be willing to destroy their bodies in order to escape poverty. I don't see us banning football. But, even former football players are refusing to let their sons participate.

This also comes at a time when football will probably become the focus of the unionization demands. I don't see the current scholarship situation enduring much longer, and it is only a matter of whom and how someone will become the Curt Flood of college football (and sports in general) in demanding compensation and winning a court case. This may hasten the demise of football more rapidly than the concern over injury. The public knows that it isn't good to be knocked out, but they still pay good money to see it. The most boring title fight is the one that ends in a decision. But, the public probably won't pay what it costs to pay "professional" athletes in college.

 

[topdecktiger]

1. Yes, football is in its prime and will see a decline. Not immediately, but gradually (like baseball). It's got nothing to do with safety. Football is not as big among the younger kids as it was with older folks. The reason football got so popular was because so many kids played it in school. High school football got to be almost a right of passage at one point. Now, it's not as big a thing with the younger kids. Not as many of them play it, so they don't have the attachment to it like older people.

2. It's not possible to make football safe. It's possible to reduce the risk without killing the quality of play, but it won't happen. The targeting rule is one good example. The complaint is that the targeting rule will ruin the quality of play by making it almost impossible to play good defense. The reason for that is not because of the targeting rule itself. Over the year, the rules have gradually changed to favor the offense, basically in the passing game. One way to counteract that advantage was for the defense to be more physical, making receivers/quarterbacks gun shy. Rules like targeting take away that counter. However, the playing field can still be leveled, even with the targeting rule, by removing some of the advantage for the offense. (A stricter intentional grounding rule, for example.) Problem is, the NFL (and college) don't want to restrict the offense, because they believe more points = higher ratings.

3. There will be some changes, nothing earth shattering. The change in popularity and quality of athlete will have to do with question #1.

 

[Scottsdale.Sooner]

Topdeck - We will see a decline? This must be your personal opinion and not supported by facts. The cost of attending a game is getting out of hand but that goes for most popular sporting events in the world. "American" football is increasing in global popularity. For example.....London will have an NFL team in 2022. Japan and Australia have shown an interest.

 

[topdecktiger]

Topdeck - We will see a decline? This must be your personal opinion and not supported by facts. The cost of attending a game is getting out of hand but that goes for most popular sporting events in the world. "American" football is increasing in global popularity. For example.....London will have an NFL team in 2022. Japan and Australia have shown an interest.

The OP asked for opinions in his post. That was the entire point.

I didn't mention anything about the cost of attending games. I said that the decline was going to be due to younger kids losing interest. Kids today are not as captivated by football as the older generations. Many schools have expressed concern that student attendance at games is down, even though most students get tickets for free.

It also is not a fact that London will get an NFL team in 2022. The NFL has made no such announcement.