College football rankings: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State lead Sporting News' preseason top 25
College football rankings 2021
1. Alabama
Alabama had six first-round selections in the 2021 NFL Draft, but "The Process” continues with Nick Saban. Bryce Young takes over at quarterback, and it's up to new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien to make the pieces fit around him with running backs Trey Sanders and Jase McClellan, receivers John Metchie and Slade Bolden and tight end Jahleel Billingsley. Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams can contribute at receiver, too. The defense should improve, as well, especially at linebacker: Tennessee transfer Henry To'oto'o joins what could be the best linebacker corps in the nation alongside Will Anderson Jr., Christopher Allen and Christian Harris, who combined for 31.5 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks in 2020. The season opener against Miami in Atlanta should be fun, and there are road tests at Florida, Texas A&M and Auburn. Like we say every year, the season does not start until Alabama loses.2. Clemson
The Tigers are 39-3 the last three seasons, but consecutive blowout losses in the Playoff against LSU and Ohio State offered a dose of humility to Dabo Swinney's program. Trevor Lawrence is gone, but D.J. Uiagalelei offered an encouraging glimpse of the future in 2020. Lyn-J Dixon steps into a starting role at tailback. Justyn Ross' return boosts a receiving corps that features E.J. Williams and Joseph Ngata. A young defense should be better, too, and that revolves around sophomores Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy and Trenton Simpson. Linebacker James Skalski also returned. The Tigers won't have to wait long for a test — not with the season-opening matchup against Georgia in Charlotte. The Tigers remain a strong bet to win a seventh straight ACC championship.3. Ohio State
Ryan Day enters his third season as coach of the Buckeyes, who are again the favorite to win a fifth straight Big Ten championship. Justin Fields is gone, and C.J. Stroud is the favorite to emerge as the starting quarterback in a battle with Jack Miller III and Kyle McCord. Ohio State has what LSU and Alabama had the last two seasons, with the most depth at receiver in the FBS. That starts with future first-round picks Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. Defensive end Zach Harrison and cornerback Sevyn Banks are All-American candidates on the defense, and freshman Jack Sawyer — who had four sacks in the spring game — should be an immediate contributor. The Buckeyes get Oregon and Penn State at home, too.4. Oklahoma
Is this the year the Sooners break through for their first national championship since 2000? Oklahoma closed 2020 as one of the hottest teams in the FBS, and Heisman Trophy favorite Spencer Rattler will improve with another year with Lincoln Riley. The running back rotation is loaded with Kennedy Brooks, Marcus Major and Tennessee transfer Eric Gray. Marvin Mims and Theo Wease and Jadon Haselwood form an elite receiving trio. The defense is always a question, but defensive tackle Perrion Winfrey and Nik Bonitto return. The Sooners will be ranked No. 1 by some publications, and a fifth CFP appearance is within reach. Oklahoma still needs to prove it in the CFP.13. Texas
The Steve Sarkisian era in Austin begins. The Longhorns' offense averaged 42.7 points per game last season, but Sam Ehlinger is gone. Casey Thompson and Hudson Card are battling for the starting job, and that should extend into fall camp. Running back Bijan Robinson and a talented group of receivers return, but as usual the questions are on the defensive side. What can Sarkisian do to improve that side of the ball? Texas lost three games by a total of 13 points last season. That's the difference in the Big 12 race, which will be tight with Oklahoma and Iowa State.17. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys remain a solid Big 12 team, and the offense should continue to produce around junior quarterback Spencer Sanders. Brennan Presley is the best bet among a young group of receivers, and offensive lineman Josh Sills returns. The Cowboys have always been able to score with Mike Gundy, and the defense improved from 26.8 points per game in 2019 to 23.5 ppg in 2020. Trace Ford and Tyler Lacy combined for 8.5 sacks in 2020. Can the Cowboys keep pace with Oklahoma, Texas and Iowa State in the Big 12? That would certainly take some heat off Gundy: He is 14-13 in conference play the last three seasons.
College football rankings: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State lead Sporting News' preseason top 25 | Sporting News
SN's Preseason Top 25 for college football
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College Football: PFF ELO rankings for all 130 FBS teams heading into the 2021 season
1. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
National Championship Win Probability: 23.0%
Conference Championship Win Probability: 51.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: RB Brian Robinson Jr. (83.8)
Alabama remains college football’s highest-rated team, even after losing starting quarterback Mac Jones, Heisman-winning wide receiver DeVonta Smith, top-six pick Jaylen Waddle and countless other players. Our simulation is right about on par with the implied odds of Alabama in the national championship marketplace, and with a breakeven percentage of about 31% for a +225 bet, it’s probably best to wait and see on this presumptive favorite.
2. CLEMSON TIGERS
National Championship Win Probability: 17.0%Conference Championship Win Probability: 58.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: ED Myles Murphy (85.2)
Like Alabama, Clemson lost significant pieces to the NFL. But unlike Alabama, we were able to see the heir apparent to Trevor Lawrence last year in D.J. Uiagalelei, who in 124 dropbacks earned a 77.6 passing grade, making five big-time throws while generating zero turnover-worthy plays (and no interceptions, to boot). The market is super heavy on the Tigers to win the ACC (-835), which is a bit steep, but they should be in the mix come December, as they always are.
3. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
National Championship Win Probability: 13.0%Conference Championship Win Probability: 48.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: LT Thayer Munford (85.2)
Justin Fields may have gone lower in the 2021 NFL Draft than we all thought he should have, but make no mistake: He was wonderful last year for the Buckeyes in an abbreviated campaign and will be hard to replace. We have Ohio State winning the Big Ten a bit more than the market-implied number, which includes an over 30% hold, but less than what you would need to have the team winning it at current market numbers (-125, 55.8 percent breakeven). As is the case with the other two favorites above, this is a wait-and-see team in the marketplace for season-long bets.
4. GEORGIA BULLDOGS
National Championship Win Probability: 7.0%Conference Championship Win Probability: 24.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: QB JT Daniels (88.3)
Georgia is the first team in these rankings with a returning quarterback, and even then, all optimism is largely based on a 128-dropback sample size for JT Daniels in 2020. He was wonderful in such a stint, though, earning an 87.4 grade while producing just six turnover-worthy plays. He’ll miss wide receiver George Pickens for at least some of the season due to an offseason ACL injury, but Kearis Jackson, the Bulldogs' leading receiver by a yard in 2020, returns and should offer some significant punch from the slot in 2021.
5. OKLAHOMA SOONERS
National Championship Win Probability: 13.0%Conference Championship Win Probability: 60.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: QB Spencer Rattler (92.5)
Spencer Rattler is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy(+550) in 2021, and for good reason. Despite being briefly benched against Texas, the redshirt sophomore continued a tradition of unreal production from the quarterback position at Oklahoma, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt en route to a 92.5 PFF grade with an almost 3-to-1 big-time throw/turnover-worthy play ratio. Additionally impressive was his ability to, with CeeDee Lamb in Dallas, make quick work of opposing defenses without the benefit of a 700-yard receiver. At -134 to win the Big 12, and our metrics lower on other Big 12 teams, Oklahoma is one favorite for which we are willing to stick out our neck.
20. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS
National Championship Win Probability: 1.0%Conference Championship Win Probability: 9.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: SS Tre Sterling (82.1)
Spencer Sanders returns to an offense without its top two playmakers from 2020. However, the backups in place have shown an ability to carry the significant workload once held by Tylan Wallace and Chuba Hubbard. Landon Wolf and LD Brown have performed well in spot-start duty when the former top Cowboys suffered injuries. If they can perform up to that expectation over the entire season, then the Cowboys should once again challenge for the Big 12 title.
21. IOWA STATE CYCLONES
National Championship Win Probability: 1.0%Conference Championship Win Probability: 11.0%
Highest-Graded Returning Player: TE Charlie Kolar (84.9)
Almost everyone is returning to Ames for an Iowa State squad that has national title aspirations. Our initial ELO ranking is lower on the Cyclones than the betting market, where they are currently priced as the eighth-most likely team to win the national championship (2.9% implied probability).
If Brock Purdy finally lives up to lofty expectations, the Cyclones should easily be one of the favorites to play in the Big 12 title game. Right now, the market has this as a 50-50 proposition.
College Football: PFF ELO rankings for all 130 FBS teams heading into the 2021 season
The Alabama Crimson Tide rank No. 1 in PFF's ELO rankings despite losing Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, among others, to the 2021 NFL Draft.
www.pff.com
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