https://soonerswire.usatoday.com/lists/rb-preview-2020/
"For perhaps the first time since Lincoln Riley arrived in Norman, there is some uncertainty on offense. Going into the season, 2020 will feature by far the most question marks of any Riley offense since 2015.
Nowhere is that more apparent than the running backs room. On top of a brand new position coach, OU returns only 24 percent of its running back snaps from last season.
And on top of that, by far the most experienced running back on the roster is suspended for half the year, leaving a wholly unproven group to start the season.
Yes, there’s potential there for disaster. But look past the surface, and there may be just as much potential for greatness. As for which one is more likely, let’s get into the numbers.
Depth Issues
When two-time 1000-yard rusher Kennedy Brooks decided to opt out of the 2020 college football season two weeks ago, he threw a massive wrench into an Oklahoma running backs room that was already reeling.
With senior running back Trey Sermon transferring to Ohio State and senior Rhamondre Stevenson suspended for the first half of 2020, OU was already short-handed in the backfield. Adding in the loss of Brooks, OU will have only 6% of last year’s running back production available in week 1.
To put this staggering turnaround into perspective, OU returned 13% of its running back snaps in 2017, after losing both Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to the NFL Draft.
The presumed week 1 starter, junior T.J. Pledger, has 40 career rushes. Redshirt freshman Marcus Major is the presumed backup because he is the only other available player with a single career snap. Major has 28 yards in his career.
The resulting depth chart is young and inexperienced, but certainly not lacking in talent. Per 247Sports, Pledger, Major and true freshman Seth McGowan were all rated as four-star prospects out of high school.
DeMarco is Back
The first reason why a lack of depth may not end up mattering all that much: DeMarco Murray. The former OU star has returned to his alma mater as running backs coach following a successful campaign in the same role at Arizona.
In 2018, Arizona’s running backs averaged an elusive rating of 30.8 (99th in FBS), per Pro Football Focus. With the addition of Murray in 2019, that rating jumped to 97.4 (23rd).
That’s not to say that OU’s running backs were in desperate need of new guidance, but Murray’s expertise is coming at the perfect time for this young group.
It’s not likely that Murray alone will be enough to combat the lack of returning production, but there is reason to believe that running back experience is not quite as crucial to Lincoln Riley’s offense as one may think.
How Important is Experience?
To put it bluntly, experience, at least when it comes to running backs, simply is not the difference-maker we once believed it to be. This appears to be the case even moreso in Lincoln Riley’s offense.
Below is a timeline of returning running back production during the Riley offensive era. For the sake of comparison, returning offensive line production has been included as well.
Next, a timeline of offensive effiiciency (both overall and run-game only) over the same period.
Both OU’s overall offensive efficiency and rushing efficiency have a distinct relationship with returning offensive line production. Meanwhile, returning running back production appears to have little effect on the offense as a whole.
And despite a lack of experience in the backfield, OU’s offensive line is primed for a big year. The Sooners return 88% of their o-line snaps from last season.
The only notable way in which returning running back production seems to affect the offense—play-calling. Riley has favored the pass in 2017 more than any other year, the very same season OU returned only 13% of its running back production.
What to Expect
What does this all boil down to? Don’t go into panic mode just yet.
Besides the depth issues, it seems that every other factor is setting up for a breakout year from OU’s young backs. An experienced offensive line, a proven position coach and a five-star QB at the helm all spell good things for this running back group.
What once seemed like a perfect storm of depth chart decimation may well end up as a blessing in disguise.
While Stevenson sits out the first several games, Pledger, Major and McGowan will get to rack up snaps behind a fierce offensive line, and put in work in the film room with a three-time Pro Bowler.
As for the offense as a whole, there’s little reason to believe that a lack of running back experience will make a significant difference in the end. OU’s offensive efficiency will rely far more on the quarterback and offensive line.
It’s fair to expect a decrease in run-game volume and a slight downtick in rushing efficiency this season, but don’t kid yourself: OU’s offense in 2020 won’t be living or dying by their running back depth." (Soonerswire.com, 2020)
"For perhaps the first time since Lincoln Riley arrived in Norman, there is some uncertainty on offense. Going into the season, 2020 will feature by far the most question marks of any Riley offense since 2015.
Nowhere is that more apparent than the running backs room. On top of a brand new position coach, OU returns only 24 percent of its running back snaps from last season.
And on top of that, by far the most experienced running back on the roster is suspended for half the year, leaving a wholly unproven group to start the season.
Yes, there’s potential there for disaster. But look past the surface, and there may be just as much potential for greatness. As for which one is more likely, let’s get into the numbers.
Depth Issues
When two-time 1000-yard rusher Kennedy Brooks decided to opt out of the 2020 college football season two weeks ago, he threw a massive wrench into an Oklahoma running backs room that was already reeling.
With senior running back Trey Sermon transferring to Ohio State and senior Rhamondre Stevenson suspended for the first half of 2020, OU was already short-handed in the backfield. Adding in the loss of Brooks, OU will have only 6% of last year’s running back production available in week 1.
To put this staggering turnaround into perspective, OU returned 13% of its running back snaps in 2017, after losing both Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to the NFL Draft.
The presumed week 1 starter, junior T.J. Pledger, has 40 career rushes. Redshirt freshman Marcus Major is the presumed backup because he is the only other available player with a single career snap. Major has 28 yards in his career.
The resulting depth chart is young and inexperienced, but certainly not lacking in talent. Per 247Sports, Pledger, Major and true freshman Seth McGowan were all rated as four-star prospects out of high school.
DeMarco is Back
The first reason why a lack of depth may not end up mattering all that much: DeMarco Murray. The former OU star has returned to his alma mater as running backs coach following a successful campaign in the same role at Arizona.
In 2018, Arizona’s running backs averaged an elusive rating of 30.8 (99th in FBS), per Pro Football Focus. With the addition of Murray in 2019, that rating jumped to 97.4 (23rd).
That’s not to say that OU’s running backs were in desperate need of new guidance, but Murray’s expertise is coming at the perfect time for this young group.
It’s not likely that Murray alone will be enough to combat the lack of returning production, but there is reason to believe that running back experience is not quite as crucial to Lincoln Riley’s offense as one may think.
How Important is Experience?
To put it bluntly, experience, at least when it comes to running backs, simply is not the difference-maker we once believed it to be. This appears to be the case even moreso in Lincoln Riley’s offense.
Below is a timeline of returning running back production during the Riley offensive era. For the sake of comparison, returning offensive line production has been included as well.
Next, a timeline of offensive effiiciency (both overall and run-game only) over the same period.
Both OU’s overall offensive efficiency and rushing efficiency have a distinct relationship with returning offensive line production. Meanwhile, returning running back production appears to have little effect on the offense as a whole.
And despite a lack of experience in the backfield, OU’s offensive line is primed for a big year. The Sooners return 88% of their o-line snaps from last season.
The only notable way in which returning running back production seems to affect the offense—play-calling. Riley has favored the pass in 2017 more than any other year, the very same season OU returned only 13% of its running back production.
What to Expect
What does this all boil down to? Don’t go into panic mode just yet.
Besides the depth issues, it seems that every other factor is setting up for a breakout year from OU’s young backs. An experienced offensive line, a proven position coach and a five-star QB at the helm all spell good things for this running back group.
What once seemed like a perfect storm of depth chart decimation may well end up as a blessing in disguise.
While Stevenson sits out the first several games, Pledger, Major and McGowan will get to rack up snaps behind a fierce offensive line, and put in work in the film room with a three-time Pro Bowler.
As for the offense as a whole, there’s little reason to believe that a lack of running back experience will make a significant difference in the end. OU’s offensive efficiency will rely far more on the quarterback and offensive line.
It’s fair to expect a decrease in run-game volume and a slight downtick in rushing efficiency this season, but don’t kid yourself: OU’s offense in 2020 won’t be living or dying by their running back depth." (Soonerswire.com, 2020)
