(something new to kick around besides Mike ;-)
No question Riley can script an opening drive, but what of 2nd half adjustments in big games? Some will say this is nitpicking at the top-rated offenses under Riley’s tenure as OC and HC, but there is uncontroversial evidence that we have sputtered offensively coming out of the locker room to start the 2nd half in big games. Last year’s playoff game vs UGA qualifies and the RRS should always be considered a big game, regardless of records (unless you are a Mack Brown apologist), but especially so this year when Game Day was camped outside the Cotton Bowl.
The results of the first four drives in both those games, 8 series in total: 5 punts (including three 3&outs), 2 turnovers (1 pick, 1 fumble), and 1 TD (a bomb).
Is this common in any big game, for unknown defensive half-time adjustments to have an immediate effect on slowing down an offense that was more potent in the first half? I honestly don’t know. But instead of following the traditional advice of “staying with who we are” should Riley at least guess at what adjustments the other team might make and game plan accordingly for the third quarter? The results in these big games suggest so.
The details…
First four possessions of 3rd Q. vs. UGA, Semifinal playoff in Rose Bowl
1st Possession: 3&Out
2nd Possession: 3&Out
3rd Possession: 8 plays, 22 yards, punt
4th Possession: 3 plays and a pick (the series after Baker had his ribs kneed in; why weren’t we going with Anderson/Sermon here to protect Baker and offset UGA’s 2nd half adjustment to come after Baker?)
First four possessions of 3rd Q. vs UT in 2018 RRS
1st Possession: 3 plays, 77 yd bomb to Hollywood - TD
2nd Possession: Murray fumble on 1st down as pocket collapsed
3rd Possession: 3&Out
4th Possession: 5 plays for 22 yards, punt
For those who say there are not enough data points above, consider the previous playoff game versus Clemson: 3rd quarter, 1st possession - 3&Out; 2nd possession: 8 for 39 yards – turnover on downs; 3rd possession: 6 plays and INT; 4th possession: 3&Out.
The overall tally goes up to 12 series with 7 punts (including five 3&outs), 4 turnovers (2 picks, 1 fumble, 1 turnover on downs), and 1 TD (a bomb). 1 score on 12 series is not good.
Still not enough big game data? Last year’s RRS 3rd quarter offensive production on the first four possessions: 1: FG; 2. Punt; 3. Punt; 4. Punt. So the overall tally on 16 series: 10 punts (seven 3&outs), 4 TOs, 2 scores (10 points). The turnover-to-score ratio is jarring.
No question Riley can script an opening drive, but what of 2nd half adjustments in big games? Some will say this is nitpicking at the top-rated offenses under Riley’s tenure as OC and HC, but there is uncontroversial evidence that we have sputtered offensively coming out of the locker room to start the 2nd half in big games. Last year’s playoff game vs UGA qualifies and the RRS should always be considered a big game, regardless of records (unless you are a Mack Brown apologist), but especially so this year when Game Day was camped outside the Cotton Bowl.
The results of the first four drives in both those games, 8 series in total: 5 punts (including three 3&outs), 2 turnovers (1 pick, 1 fumble), and 1 TD (a bomb).
Is this common in any big game, for unknown defensive half-time adjustments to have an immediate effect on slowing down an offense that was more potent in the first half? I honestly don’t know. But instead of following the traditional advice of “staying with who we are” should Riley at least guess at what adjustments the other team might make and game plan accordingly for the third quarter? The results in these big games suggest so.
The details…
First four possessions of 3rd Q. vs. UGA, Semifinal playoff in Rose Bowl
1st Possession: 3&Out
2nd Possession: 3&Out
3rd Possession: 8 plays, 22 yards, punt
4th Possession: 3 plays and a pick (the series after Baker had his ribs kneed in; why weren’t we going with Anderson/Sermon here to protect Baker and offset UGA’s 2nd half adjustment to come after Baker?)
First four possessions of 3rd Q. vs UT in 2018 RRS
1st Possession: 3 plays, 77 yd bomb to Hollywood - TD
2nd Possession: Murray fumble on 1st down as pocket collapsed
3rd Possession: 3&Out
4th Possession: 5 plays for 22 yards, punt
For those who say there are not enough data points above, consider the previous playoff game versus Clemson: 3rd quarter, 1st possession - 3&Out; 2nd possession: 8 for 39 yards – turnover on downs; 3rd possession: 6 plays and INT; 4th possession: 3&Out.
The overall tally goes up to 12 series with 7 punts (including five 3&outs), 4 turnovers (2 picks, 1 fumble, 1 turnover on downs), and 1 TD (a bomb). 1 score on 12 series is not good.
Still not enough big game data? Last year’s RRS 3rd quarter offensive production on the first four possessions: 1: FG; 2. Punt; 3. Punt; 4. Punt. So the overall tally on 16 series: 10 punts (seven 3&outs), 4 TOs, 2 scores (10 points). The turnover-to-score ratio is jarring.
