The game is about matchups, which is why playing teams in common doesn't always predict a winner. If OU beats TCU and TCU beats Baylor, OU should beat Baylor, right? No.
This game is a matchup nightmare for Tennessee. They have a strong running game, and our defense is strong against the run. Regardless of which side wins this battle, it will not be by much. Their offensive strength vs. our defensive strength. They have a decent but not great passing game, and we have a decent but not great secondary. Again, a close matchup for them on offense. Thus, their offense and our defense are very evenly matched. I think this means high teens, low 20's for score. With the home field advantage, they get 23.
On the flip side, their passing defense is suspect, so call them decent but not great against the passing game. OU showed that we are going to do well passing the ball this year, and our young OL was actually very good at pass blocking. Thus, they have a sizable disadvantage here against our passing attack. Now, on the flip side, they have a very good run defense, and we have a decent but not great running attack due to our young offensive line. Our running backs are awesome but still need a sliver of daylight to be effective. Thus, they have a slight advantage against our running game. It all comes down to whether or not they can make us one dimensional and then do better than expected against our passing game. Or will we exploit their weakness in the passing game and make them pull from the front 7 to help the secondary, thus allowing us the room that we need to run effectively? I am betting on the latter. We will pass to set up the run, allowing us to hurt them just enough in the run game to keep the chains moving. I think this recipe means high 20's, low 30's for us. Given we are playing on the road, we get 27.
Turnovers are impossible to predict this early, and even though they can have a huge influence on the eventual outcome, there is no way to call it right now. So that leaves special teams. With our new punter and kicker, the field position and special teams would be either a wash or a slight advantage for us. This may give us 3 more points or none at all. On the road, none at all.
Final Score:
OU 27
UT 23
This game is a matchup nightmare for Tennessee. They have a strong running game, and our defense is strong against the run. Regardless of which side wins this battle, it will not be by much. Their offensive strength vs. our defensive strength. They have a decent but not great passing game, and we have a decent but not great secondary. Again, a close matchup for them on offense. Thus, their offense and our defense are very evenly matched. I think this means high teens, low 20's for score. With the home field advantage, they get 23.
On the flip side, their passing defense is suspect, so call them decent but not great against the passing game. OU showed that we are going to do well passing the ball this year, and our young OL was actually very good at pass blocking. Thus, they have a sizable disadvantage here against our passing attack. Now, on the flip side, they have a very good run defense, and we have a decent but not great running attack due to our young offensive line. Our running backs are awesome but still need a sliver of daylight to be effective. Thus, they have a slight advantage against our running game. It all comes down to whether or not they can make us one dimensional and then do better than expected against our passing game. Or will we exploit their weakness in the passing game and make them pull from the front 7 to help the secondary, thus allowing us the room that we need to run effectively? I am betting on the latter. We will pass to set up the run, allowing us to hurt them just enough in the run game to keep the chains moving. I think this recipe means high 20's, low 30's for us. Given we are playing on the road, we get 27.
Turnovers are impossible to predict this early, and even though they can have a huge influence on the eventual outcome, there is no way to call it right now. So that leaves special teams. With our new punter and kicker, the field position and special teams would be either a wash or a slight advantage for us. This may give us 3 more points or none at all. On the road, none at all.
Final Score:
OU 27
UT 23
