I did a little research on where Texas talent goes, and if past conference re-alignment has impacted OU. I was also interested in gaining insight into how future re-alignment might impact OU .
Assumption
1. I believe OU must rely heavily (50-60%) on Texas talent, along with the top 3-5 per year from Oklahoma, and a few from other states. It is a simple matter of location and quantity. California, Florida, and Texas HS players contribute the most players to the NFL, by far.
2. To be successful, we need top talent (like Rivals top 250)
Theories I have or have read
1. A&M moving to the SEC has been a Boom for them.
2. Baylor and TCU in the Big12 has been a Boom for them
3. Nebraska moving to the BIG has been a detriment for them
4. OU and UT have suffered by being in the Big 12.
I looked at the last 10 years of Rivals Top 250 players from Texas (~ 30 players per year). I averaged the number of recruits for a team/conference before the conference changes (6 years) and then the 4 years afterward. By conference changes, I am talking about ATM, Mis, Colo, NU, TCU, and WV movements in 2011/2010.
Texas was averaging 13.3 top 250/year and is now averaging 6.5.
Texas A&M was averaging 3 top 250/year and is now averaging 9.
Oklahoma was averaging 4.5 top 250/year and is now averaging 1.8.
Oklahoma State was averaging 2 top 250/year and is now averaging 0.8.
Baylor was averaging 0.5 top 250/year and is now averaging 2.
TCU got a player every other year before and after (No Change)
Nebraska was averaging 1 top 250/year and is now averaging 1 every 3 years.
Looking at conferences (excluding teams above)
The Big10 was averaging 0.7 top 250/year and is now averaging 1.3.
PAC was averaging 2 top 250/year and is now averaging 2.5.
SEC was averaging 4 top 250/year and is now averaging 3.3.
It seams to me that the LOSERS are:
- OU now get less than 50% of their prior top Texas talent.
- Texas now get less than 50% of their prior top Texas talent.
- OSU now get less than 50% of their prior top Texas talent.
- Nebraska now get less than 33% of their prior top Texas talent.
The Winners are:
- A&M now get 3 times the top Texas talent they previously got.
The Big 10 gets 1.3 Texas kids a year, the PAC gets 2.5 kids a year, and the SEC (minus ATM) gets 3.3. Texas kids don't really go to the BIG or PAC. Too far for Mom and Dad to see them play.
OU needs to move to the SEC as quickly as possible. Moving to PAC or BIG will kill us. UT can go to the PAC or BIG and get 6-7 kids a year. We get 6-7 if we move to SEC and maybe 1-2 in BIG or PAC.
I can provide the table if someone can upload and post.
Assumption
1. I believe OU must rely heavily (50-60%) on Texas talent, along with the top 3-5 per year from Oklahoma, and a few from other states. It is a simple matter of location and quantity. California, Florida, and Texas HS players contribute the most players to the NFL, by far.
2. To be successful, we need top talent (like Rivals top 250)
Theories I have or have read
1. A&M moving to the SEC has been a Boom for them.
2. Baylor and TCU in the Big12 has been a Boom for them
3. Nebraska moving to the BIG has been a detriment for them
4. OU and UT have suffered by being in the Big 12.
I looked at the last 10 years of Rivals Top 250 players from Texas (~ 30 players per year). I averaged the number of recruits for a team/conference before the conference changes (6 years) and then the 4 years afterward. By conference changes, I am talking about ATM, Mis, Colo, NU, TCU, and WV movements in 2011/2010.
Texas was averaging 13.3 top 250/year and is now averaging 6.5.
Texas A&M was averaging 3 top 250/year and is now averaging 9.
Oklahoma was averaging 4.5 top 250/year and is now averaging 1.8.
Oklahoma State was averaging 2 top 250/year and is now averaging 0.8.
Baylor was averaging 0.5 top 250/year and is now averaging 2.
TCU got a player every other year before and after (No Change)
Nebraska was averaging 1 top 250/year and is now averaging 1 every 3 years.
Looking at conferences (excluding teams above)
The Big10 was averaging 0.7 top 250/year and is now averaging 1.3.
PAC was averaging 2 top 250/year and is now averaging 2.5.
SEC was averaging 4 top 250/year and is now averaging 3.3.
It seams to me that the LOSERS are:
- OU now get less than 50% of their prior top Texas talent.
- Texas now get less than 50% of their prior top Texas talent.
- OSU now get less than 50% of their prior top Texas talent.
- Nebraska now get less than 33% of their prior top Texas talent.
The Winners are:
- A&M now get 3 times the top Texas talent they previously got.
The Big 10 gets 1.3 Texas kids a year, the PAC gets 2.5 kids a year, and the SEC (minus ATM) gets 3.3. Texas kids don't really go to the BIG or PAC. Too far for Mom and Dad to see them play.
OU needs to move to the SEC as quickly as possible. Moving to PAC or BIG will kill us. UT can go to the PAC or BIG and get 6-7 kids a year. We get 6-7 if we move to SEC and maybe 1-2 in BIG or PAC.
I can provide the table if someone can upload and post.
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