Update Week 9 : (full details remain below)
I have included the Mike Stoops Line to show before/after both in season and 2018a vs 2018b
ORIGINAL
I am a big proponent of looking at the efficiency ratings, as they all attempt to account for things like opponent, number of plays (pace), garbage time stats, field position etc.
Essentially, this is an attempt to normalize every team in the NCAA for who they are playing, what is exactly happening play to play, and see how their offense, defense, and overall metrics compare to see who is 'better'. They are generally quite accurate at finding the top teams in each season, and I have been watching two different ones to try and account for any bad data that one might have over the other.
The two sources:
I have included the year over year trend below, as well as 2018 data only I will update week to week, so we can see how we trend after each game. I unfortunately missed what we were after week 1, but it's not going to really matter in the long run.
Yearly Efficiency Rankings - Through Week 6
**Edit - Changed Y-axis to reverse, so it descends from 1-120**
If that is too messy, here is ESPN and S&P+ Averaged for each unit:
Average Efficiency Rankings
2018 Weekly Efficiency Rankings
Here is the data in chart form, if you would like to see the actuals:
As I mentioned, I plan to update the 2018 stats after each week, so we can all monitor over the season.
I know this will turn into another "Mike Stoops Thread", but at least we will have hard data inside this one, to understand that he is not getting it done. Always turn to the data.
Here are some of my simple thoughts:
I have included the Mike Stoops Line to show before/after both in season and 2018a vs 2018b
ORIGINAL
I am a big proponent of looking at the efficiency ratings, as they all attempt to account for things like opponent, number of plays (pace), garbage time stats, field position etc.
Essentially, this is an attempt to normalize every team in the NCAA for who they are playing, what is exactly happening play to play, and see how their offense, defense, and overall metrics compare to see who is 'better'. They are generally quite accurate at finding the top teams in each season, and I have been watching two different ones to try and account for any bad data that one might have over the other.
The two sources:
- Football Outsiders 'S&P+ Ratings' (LINK)
- The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).
The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
- The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).
- ESPN 'Team Efficiencies' (LINK)
- Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season.
I have included the year over year trend below, as well as 2018 data only I will update week to week, so we can see how we trend after each game. I unfortunately missed what we were after week 1, but it's not going to really matter in the long run.
Yearly Efficiency Rankings - Through Week 6
**Edit - Changed Y-axis to reverse, so it descends from 1-120**
If that is too messy, here is ESPN and S&P+ Averaged for each unit:
Average Efficiency Rankings
2018 Weekly Efficiency Rankings
Here is the data in chart form, if you would like to see the actuals:
As I mentioned, I plan to update the 2018 stats after each week, so we can all monitor over the season.
I know this will turn into another "Mike Stoops Thread", but at least we will have hard data inside this one, to understand that he is not getting it done. Always turn to the data.
Here are some of my simple thoughts:
- Interesting that both offense/defense ratings get worse in the 2012-2014 time period, coinciding with our poor recruiting efforts that have been documented
- Every 'poor' offensive year can pretty much be easily explained
- 2005 - Bomar (true freshman QB)
- 2006 - WR to QB 1 week before season
- 2009 - freshman thrust into role after Sam's injury
- 2013-2014 - really the biggest outlier, poor QB play but explains why we moved on from Heupel
- Mike Stoops has only had 1 defense (2015) that ranked ahead of a single Brent Venables defense
- 2015 team didn't play OSU/TCU/Baylor starting QBs
- BV average D - 9th
- MS average D - 41st
- Last 3 year average - 64th
- Offense pre-Lincoln - 20th
- Lincoln Avg. - 4th
- ST avg. before this year - 61st (last 3 years - 100th!!)
- Current ST rank - 22nd (BEAMER BALL)
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