Keeping the tradition alive in memory of our guy Pacheco. We had some fun and luck back in November, but it feels good that these races are back where they belong on the first Saturday in May. As any good handicapper, I will start with that these are just my opinions after spending a few hours with the PPs, and talking to a few different people. I only handicapped the Stakes races, as the early card is a total mess on big race days. Immediately below are my thoughts on each race, and then below that is how I would attack the race. I of course welcome anybody else's thoughts, including you @Spyglass. I will likely get my Derby thoughts up tomorrow morning, but best of luck to everybody and enjoy the races!
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Race 6, Alysheba: The 1 is a good horse, but the switching of trainers is a bit of a red flag to me. I like the latest results for sure, but those have been in lower races against much different competition. The 2 and 3 are out, and if I have to use one, it is the 3. Talamo is switching mounts off the 2, and that tells me he knows something in this race. I think the 4 can find the board and make some noise, but the 6 is the class of this race. The race truly starts and stops there.
Race 7, Edgewood: The 1 likes the distance, so keeping her in the discussion. The 2 has never gone this distance, but I like the most recent race as Keeneland to keep her in the discussion. The 7 wants to be in the race, I just hesitate given the last Stakes race performance, but going back to Saez could help. The 6 is again the class in this race, and I think she dominates if she shows up.
Race 8, La Troienne: I know some people who like the 1, and like the 1 quite a bit, but I am just not sold. When the 1 goes up in class, the performance is just not there. The 2 is the class, and she is a total freak. If she shows up, it will be over before they even go to stretch. With that said, the 3 is going to throw down, and make it a race. I personally like the 3 to make this a race, I just wonder about the layoff since Breeder's Cup in November, even though Chad Brown is a master coming off layoffs. I think 5 and 7 can make this a race, and like the 7 more than the 5.
Race 9, Eight Belles: Will have to abstain from going into too much detail in this race, as we have connections in this race and want to remain unbiased. However, with that said, I think this is a wide open race. I could see the 3, 9, 10, or 11 win this race.
Race 10, Twin Spires: Turf sprints are always a drunken mess. You need a good clean break from the gate, limited traffic, and a horse on their toes. I like the 3, but being inside on these sprints can lead to trouble, so being outside helps typically. With that, I am going to look outside at 8, 9, and 11. I am skipping the 10 because the distance is all over the map, and that is a red flag to me, even if Miller is training that horse which comes with its own rumors these days. I also think the 5 could mess around and make some noise here.
Race 11, Oaks: I always love this race, and typically it has had some classic throw downs. The 3 is the true class here, and has good distance experience, but has been proven to be mortal before, and favorites can struggle in this race historically. The 3 typically loves to throw down on the 6, and has finished 1/2 in three different races head to head. The 10 and the 12 will make this a race though, and the 12 has quietly been a horse I like a lot. The 12 has gone this distance, and put up some real speed figures, so there is reason to lean that way. I think the 4 and 5 can make it a race, so keep an eye between the 3 and the 6 for another contender.
Bet 1: Pick 3; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2, 'Ice Cold' Pick 3, but this would be all the heavy favorites coming out and doing their thing
Bet 2: Pick 3; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2,3,5,7, Slight hedge from Bet 1 just in case the 2 comes out flat (which she has before)
Bet 3: Pick 4; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2,3,5,7/ALL, Rolling Bet 2 into the next race, and taking the entire field and hoping for one of the long shots to bomb (9 or 11)
Bet 4: Pick 5; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2,3,5,7/ALL/ALL, Rolling Bet 3 forward again, and hoping for chaos in the Sprint
Bet 5: Race 6; Exacta 6/4,1,5
Bet 6: Race 7; Exacta 6/1,2,7
Bet 7: Race 8; Exacta 2/1,3,5,7
Bet 8: Race 11; 4 WPS
Bet 9: Race 11; 5 WPS
Bet 10: Race 11; Exacta Box 3,6,10,12
Bet 11: Race 11; Exacta 3,6
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Race 6, Alysheba: The 1 is a good horse, but the switching of trainers is a bit of a red flag to me. I like the latest results for sure, but those have been in lower races against much different competition. The 2 and 3 are out, and if I have to use one, it is the 3. Talamo is switching mounts off the 2, and that tells me he knows something in this race. I think the 4 can find the board and make some noise, but the 6 is the class of this race. The race truly starts and stops there.
Race 7, Edgewood: The 1 likes the distance, so keeping her in the discussion. The 2 has never gone this distance, but I like the most recent race as Keeneland to keep her in the discussion. The 7 wants to be in the race, I just hesitate given the last Stakes race performance, but going back to Saez could help. The 6 is again the class in this race, and I think she dominates if she shows up.
Race 8, La Troienne: I know some people who like the 1, and like the 1 quite a bit, but I am just not sold. When the 1 goes up in class, the performance is just not there. The 2 is the class, and she is a total freak. If she shows up, it will be over before they even go to stretch. With that said, the 3 is going to throw down, and make it a race. I personally like the 3 to make this a race, I just wonder about the layoff since Breeder's Cup in November, even though Chad Brown is a master coming off layoffs. I think 5 and 7 can make this a race, and like the 7 more than the 5.
Race 9, Eight Belles: Will have to abstain from going into too much detail in this race, as we have connections in this race and want to remain unbiased. However, with that said, I think this is a wide open race. I could see the 3, 9, 10, or 11 win this race.
Race 10, Twin Spires: Turf sprints are always a drunken mess. You need a good clean break from the gate, limited traffic, and a horse on their toes. I like the 3, but being inside on these sprints can lead to trouble, so being outside helps typically. With that, I am going to look outside at 8, 9, and 11. I am skipping the 10 because the distance is all over the map, and that is a red flag to me, even if Miller is training that horse which comes with its own rumors these days. I also think the 5 could mess around and make some noise here.
Race 11, Oaks: I always love this race, and typically it has had some classic throw downs. The 3 is the true class here, and has good distance experience, but has been proven to be mortal before, and favorites can struggle in this race historically. The 3 typically loves to throw down on the 6, and has finished 1/2 in three different races head to head. The 10 and the 12 will make this a race though, and the 12 has quietly been a horse I like a lot. The 12 has gone this distance, and put up some real speed figures, so there is reason to lean that way. I think the 4 and 5 can make it a race, so keep an eye between the 3 and the 6 for another contender.
Bet 1: Pick 3; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2, 'Ice Cold' Pick 3, but this would be all the heavy favorites coming out and doing their thing
Bet 2: Pick 3; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2,3,5,7, Slight hedge from Bet 1 just in case the 2 comes out flat (which she has before)
Bet 3: Pick 4; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2,3,5,7/ALL, Rolling Bet 2 into the next race, and taking the entire field and hoping for one of the long shots to bomb (9 or 11)
Bet 4: Pick 5; Starting in the 6th: 6/6/2,3,5,7/ALL/ALL, Rolling Bet 3 forward again, and hoping for chaos in the Sprint
Bet 5: Race 6; Exacta 6/4,1,5
Bet 6: Race 7; Exacta 6/1,2,7
Bet 7: Race 8; Exacta 2/1,3,5,7
Bet 8: Race 11; 4 WPS
Bet 9: Race 11; 5 WPS
Bet 10: Race 11; Exacta Box 3,6,10,12
Bet 11: Race 11; Exacta 3,6
