Thought I'd share.....
Stewart Mandel’s weekly Athletic Mailbag: Whatever is going on with the coaching carousel, it’s not good for college football.
You guys had a lot of smart questions related to this week’s Coaching Carousel Gone Berserk, but I think this one may have taken top prize.
Q - WTF is going on? — Andrew B.
WTF indeed.
Q - When Jimbo Fisher left Florida State for Texas A&M, there was a sense that he was fleeing a sinking ship. The moves of Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley, whose teams have a combined record of 21-3 on the year, feel very different. Why would anyone abandon a secure position at either Notre Dame or Oklahoma? Are the reasons particular to Riley and Kelly, or are these moves a harbinger of coaching carousels to come, when no job will be safe? — Wes B.
Only Riley and Kelly could tell us definitively what their motivations might be, but the larger trend we’re seeing develop is this: The ever-accelerating college football arms race that has largely centered around weight rooms and waterfalls now includes coaches themselves.
USC athletic director Mike Bohn and LSU AD Scott Woodward will tell us they hired a world-class coach to give their student-athletes the best possible experience. Let’s be real: USC hiring away Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma or LSU hiring away Brian Kelly from Notre Dame is one big flex. Hey, five-star recruit who can play wherever he wants: We could show you our sick $60 million locker room or our 57 helmet-uniform combos, or, we can go out and steal away one of the best coaches in the country just because we can. How badass are we?
Riley and Kelly were already making plenty money at their former employers. Mel Tucker wasn’t going to leave Michigan State if it only paid him $8.5 million a year instead of $9.5 million a year. James Franklin doesn’t have a second home on Lake Como for which he needs $80 million to afford the upkeep. But to these coaches, money = commitment. If I’m going to compete with Alabama and Clemson for national titles, I need you to show me you’re willing to do whatever it takes. LSU (10 years, $95 million, plus incentives) and USC (no info released, but believed to be comparable numbers) made that proclamation loud and clear. And that’s on top of whatever pledges they made on assistant salaries, support staff, facilities, academics, and more.
Does that mean every coach in America is now essentially a year-to-year flight risk if someone comes along with an even sweeter package than the one they have now? Not necessarily. But if you’ve got a successful coach you never want to risk losing, you’re going to have to make sure he’s getting what he needs at all times, no matter how excessive or unnecessary it may seem. I would not have imagined the head coach of Oklahoma could be lacking for anything, but Riley wouldn’t be making this move if he was 100 percent happy with the dynamics in Norman. And it’s no secret Kelly has been engaged in a decade-long fight with his administration to get high-minded Notre Dame to treat football more similarly to other football factories.
To be clear, NONE OF THIS IS GOOD FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL.
Soon-to-be Fiesta Bowl coach Mel Tucker should not be making the same salary as three-time NBA championship coach Steve Kerr. That is bonkers. Notre Dame should not be losing its coach days before possibly finding out it made the College Football Playoff. Imagine if, as soon as the Rams got eliminated from playoff contention, they fired Sean McVay, then turned around and hired Matt LaFleur from the Packers the week of the wild-card games. Something like that could only happen in our favorite sport, where truly no one is in charge of anything.
But here we are. Only time will tell if weeks like this one turn out to be extraordinarily unusual or more the sport’s new ordinary.
Q - With Lincoln Riley leaving Oklahoma, what is the likelihood in your mind that as Oklahoma transitions to the SEC that it could become the next Nebraska in their new conference? — Michael D., Salt Lake City
Oklahoma and Nebraska were once attached at the hip, but I don’t see them as particularly comparable today. Nebraska’s success from roughly the 1960s through the ‘90s (it technically peaked in 2001) was predicated on a style of power/option football that wasn’t reliant on elite, NFL-caliber athletes. Tom Osborne’s 1994, ’95 and ’97 national championship teams produced just one first-round offensive player between them, running back Lawrence Phillips. As football has become more and more wide-open and thus dependent on skill players, Nebraska’s relatively barren recruiting footprint has become a bigger and bigger disadvantage. That would be the case whether or not it ever joined the Big Ten, though losing the Big 12/Texas pipeline has not helped.
(Crazy stat I came across while researching this answer: Nebraska has not had a receiver drafted higher than the third round since No. 1 pick Irving Fryar in 1984!)
Oklahoma does not have the same recruiting challenges. It regularly signs top-10 classes heavy with five-star receivers and/or Texas kids, and, thanks to Riley, has been able to land elite quarterbacks from all over the country. And rather than falling behind the times schematically, Bob Stoops had Oklahoma out at the forefront as far back as 1999, when he hired Mike Leach as his offensive coordinator. Oklahoma has been associated with prolific, pass-happy offenses for longer than today’s recruits have been alive.
Obviously, the Sooners have been less successful over the past decade or so in recruiting and developing elite defensive talent, and that’s a legitimate concern heading into the premier conference in that department. Whoever gets this job is going to have to make it Priority A to emphasize defensive linemen in particular. The two teams playing in this weekend’s SEC championship game are shining examples of that.
Though even the SEC in recent years has shown that all the defensive talent in the world can be neutralized if you’re fortunate enough to have a Joe Burrow at quarterback or DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle at receiver.
The reality for Oklahoma is that it’s highly unlikely to keep winning 11 or 12 games nearly every season once it arrives in the SEC. And that’s not a slight against Oklahoma — it’s just the reality that there’s only one Alabama. (Though Georgia may soon have a word.) But of course, Oklahoma’s administration knew this when it joined the SEC, also realizing that in an expanded College Football Playoff, going 9-3 will feel more fulfilling than it does now.
Q - Matt Campbell is at (or near) the top of everyone’s list to fill the head coaching vacancy at Notre Dame, and he’s been on the “Twitter List of Candidates for Marquee Coaching Gigs” for a few years. As a University of Toledo, alum I’m thrilled to see a former coach in this position. As a Notre Dame Subway Alum, are there red flags to be on the watch for if it’s Campbell? Are there any other cautionary tales of a similarly situated “Can’t Miss” coach who missed? — Rich, Toledo, OH
Oh jeez, where would we even begin on the list of can’t-miss coaches gone wrong? Scott Frost, Charlie Strong, Tom Herman, Jimmy Lake, Scott Satterfield (so far) … and I’m sure the commenters will come up with 20 more.
There are two red flags with Campbell. One: He has never coached at a school that attempts to recruit national championship-caliber talent. That’s not to say he can’t recruit; he beat out Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher for QB Brock Purdy, and his 2022 class is currently ranked 26th on 247Sports, which would be by far the highest Iowa State has ever signed. But at its core, Campbell still has largely a developmental program, whereas at the expectation at Notre Dame would be to go out land the next Kyle Hamilton, Michael Mayer and Blake Fisher.
And of course, there should be at least some concern that the Cyclones regressed this season from 8-1 in the Big 12 to 5-4 despite nearly all the same key players from last season. If it does indeed turn out he’s coached his last game in Ames, Campbell would finish his six-year tenure with relatively modest (by Notre Dame standards) records of 42-33 overall and 31-23 in conference.
But when I evaluate coaches, my No. 1 measuring stick is how they do relative to the historical norm for their program. Campbell’s .560 winning percentage makes him the first Iowa State coach over .500 since Earle Bruce’s .529 mark from 1973-78. Bruce went on to lead Ohio State to four Big Ten titles in eight seasons. Even the great Johnny Majors, who would go on to lead Pitt to a national championship, managed just one winning record in five seasons there. And Campbell’s .574 conference record is the highest of anyone who’s ever coached the Cyclones in the Big 8 or Big 12.
So … I’m pretty confident that Campbell is the real deal.
Stewart Mandel’s weekly Athletic Mailbag: Whatever is going on with the coaching carousel, it’s not good for college football.
You guys had a lot of smart questions related to this week’s Coaching Carousel Gone Berserk, but I think this one may have taken top prize.
Q - WTF is going on? — Andrew B.
WTF indeed.
Q - When Jimbo Fisher left Florida State for Texas A&M, there was a sense that he was fleeing a sinking ship. The moves of Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley, whose teams have a combined record of 21-3 on the year, feel very different. Why would anyone abandon a secure position at either Notre Dame or Oklahoma? Are the reasons particular to Riley and Kelly, or are these moves a harbinger of coaching carousels to come, when no job will be safe? — Wes B.
Only Riley and Kelly could tell us definitively what their motivations might be, but the larger trend we’re seeing develop is this: The ever-accelerating college football arms race that has largely centered around weight rooms and waterfalls now includes coaches themselves.
USC athletic director Mike Bohn and LSU AD Scott Woodward will tell us they hired a world-class coach to give their student-athletes the best possible experience. Let’s be real: USC hiring away Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma or LSU hiring away Brian Kelly from Notre Dame is one big flex. Hey, five-star recruit who can play wherever he wants: We could show you our sick $60 million locker room or our 57 helmet-uniform combos, or, we can go out and steal away one of the best coaches in the country just because we can. How badass are we?
Riley and Kelly were already making plenty money at their former employers. Mel Tucker wasn’t going to leave Michigan State if it only paid him $8.5 million a year instead of $9.5 million a year. James Franklin doesn’t have a second home on Lake Como for which he needs $80 million to afford the upkeep. But to these coaches, money = commitment. If I’m going to compete with Alabama and Clemson for national titles, I need you to show me you’re willing to do whatever it takes. LSU (10 years, $95 million, plus incentives) and USC (no info released, but believed to be comparable numbers) made that proclamation loud and clear. And that’s on top of whatever pledges they made on assistant salaries, support staff, facilities, academics, and more.
Does that mean every coach in America is now essentially a year-to-year flight risk if someone comes along with an even sweeter package than the one they have now? Not necessarily. But if you’ve got a successful coach you never want to risk losing, you’re going to have to make sure he’s getting what he needs at all times, no matter how excessive or unnecessary it may seem. I would not have imagined the head coach of Oklahoma could be lacking for anything, but Riley wouldn’t be making this move if he was 100 percent happy with the dynamics in Norman. And it’s no secret Kelly has been engaged in a decade-long fight with his administration to get high-minded Notre Dame to treat football more similarly to other football factories.
To be clear, NONE OF THIS IS GOOD FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL.
Soon-to-be Fiesta Bowl coach Mel Tucker should not be making the same salary as three-time NBA championship coach Steve Kerr. That is bonkers. Notre Dame should not be losing its coach days before possibly finding out it made the College Football Playoff. Imagine if, as soon as the Rams got eliminated from playoff contention, they fired Sean McVay, then turned around and hired Matt LaFleur from the Packers the week of the wild-card games. Something like that could only happen in our favorite sport, where truly no one is in charge of anything.
But here we are. Only time will tell if weeks like this one turn out to be extraordinarily unusual or more the sport’s new ordinary.
Q - With Lincoln Riley leaving Oklahoma, what is the likelihood in your mind that as Oklahoma transitions to the SEC that it could become the next Nebraska in their new conference? — Michael D., Salt Lake City
Oklahoma and Nebraska were once attached at the hip, but I don’t see them as particularly comparable today. Nebraska’s success from roughly the 1960s through the ‘90s (it technically peaked in 2001) was predicated on a style of power/option football that wasn’t reliant on elite, NFL-caliber athletes. Tom Osborne’s 1994, ’95 and ’97 national championship teams produced just one first-round offensive player between them, running back Lawrence Phillips. As football has become more and more wide-open and thus dependent on skill players, Nebraska’s relatively barren recruiting footprint has become a bigger and bigger disadvantage. That would be the case whether or not it ever joined the Big Ten, though losing the Big 12/Texas pipeline has not helped.
(Crazy stat I came across while researching this answer: Nebraska has not had a receiver drafted higher than the third round since No. 1 pick Irving Fryar in 1984!)
Oklahoma does not have the same recruiting challenges. It regularly signs top-10 classes heavy with five-star receivers and/or Texas kids, and, thanks to Riley, has been able to land elite quarterbacks from all over the country. And rather than falling behind the times schematically, Bob Stoops had Oklahoma out at the forefront as far back as 1999, when he hired Mike Leach as his offensive coordinator. Oklahoma has been associated with prolific, pass-happy offenses for longer than today’s recruits have been alive.
Obviously, the Sooners have been less successful over the past decade or so in recruiting and developing elite defensive talent, and that’s a legitimate concern heading into the premier conference in that department. Whoever gets this job is going to have to make it Priority A to emphasize defensive linemen in particular. The two teams playing in this weekend’s SEC championship game are shining examples of that.
Though even the SEC in recent years has shown that all the defensive talent in the world can be neutralized if you’re fortunate enough to have a Joe Burrow at quarterback or DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle at receiver.
The reality for Oklahoma is that it’s highly unlikely to keep winning 11 or 12 games nearly every season once it arrives in the SEC. And that’s not a slight against Oklahoma — it’s just the reality that there’s only one Alabama. (Though Georgia may soon have a word.) But of course, Oklahoma’s administration knew this when it joined the SEC, also realizing that in an expanded College Football Playoff, going 9-3 will feel more fulfilling than it does now.
Q - Matt Campbell is at (or near) the top of everyone’s list to fill the head coaching vacancy at Notre Dame, and he’s been on the “Twitter List of Candidates for Marquee Coaching Gigs” for a few years. As a University of Toledo, alum I’m thrilled to see a former coach in this position. As a Notre Dame Subway Alum, are there red flags to be on the watch for if it’s Campbell? Are there any other cautionary tales of a similarly situated “Can’t Miss” coach who missed? — Rich, Toledo, OH
Oh jeez, where would we even begin on the list of can’t-miss coaches gone wrong? Scott Frost, Charlie Strong, Tom Herman, Jimmy Lake, Scott Satterfield (so far) … and I’m sure the commenters will come up with 20 more.
There are two red flags with Campbell. One: He has never coached at a school that attempts to recruit national championship-caliber talent. That’s not to say he can’t recruit; he beat out Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher for QB Brock Purdy, and his 2022 class is currently ranked 26th on 247Sports, which would be by far the highest Iowa State has ever signed. But at its core, Campbell still has largely a developmental program, whereas at the expectation at Notre Dame would be to go out land the next Kyle Hamilton, Michael Mayer and Blake Fisher.
And of course, there should be at least some concern that the Cyclones regressed this season from 8-1 in the Big 12 to 5-4 despite nearly all the same key players from last season. If it does indeed turn out he’s coached his last game in Ames, Campbell would finish his six-year tenure with relatively modest (by Notre Dame standards) records of 42-33 overall and 31-23 in conference.
But when I evaluate coaches, my No. 1 measuring stick is how they do relative to the historical norm for their program. Campbell’s .560 winning percentage makes him the first Iowa State coach over .500 since Earle Bruce’s .529 mark from 1973-78. Bruce went on to lead Ohio State to four Big Ten titles in eight seasons. Even the great Johnny Majors, who would go on to lead Pitt to a national championship, managed just one winning record in five seasons there. And Campbell’s .574 conference record is the highest of anyone who’s ever coached the Cyclones in the Big 8 or Big 12.
So … I’m pretty confident that Campbell is the real deal.
