Coming into the season, I think most people would've agreed that 10-2 and making the Big 12 championship game would be around what would be the threshold for a successful season. Not to say that less would've been a disaster or anything, but that at least seemed like a lofty but achievable goal for the team. In theory, that is still possible, but after the last two weeks, we all can agree that ain't happening. But what is realistic? Are we doomed to 3-9 and the basement with Nebraska? Obviously if we don't improve from the TCU game, we aren't beating anybody. But I'm trying to be optimistic. Despite what the bedwetters say, I don't think we're doomed to play as awful as we did against TCU for the rest of the season.
I look at it as we can group the schedule into tiers of opponent and get an idea of what is still realistic. Looking ahead, I would group our remaining schedule as follows:
Should win:
West Virginia - Likely the weakest team in the Big 12 at this point, which is really a testament to how balanced the league is this year. Going on the road to Morgantown will be tough, but even if we play at the level we did against KSU I think we should be able to get the W since I think they're a worse team than KSU
Texas Tech - Yes, they beat Texas. Yes, they are a talented team as well, and yes it's a road game. Very similar to WVU, but we should hopefully have several players back from injury by the end of the season, and hopefully we have improved and learned BV's system better by that point
Could win:
Texas - "Throw the records out the window" is so cliché at this point, but this game more so than any other is one where I really believe it. We have no QB, it's looking like they'll have Ewers back, and our defense doesn't look like they could dump sand out of a boot if the instructions were on the heel. But how many times have we seen an awful Texas team come in and beat a highly ranked OU team in the Cotton Bowl? Who's to say we can't do the same? Ewers has never played in a truly hostile environment, maybe he'll get rattled. Maybe he's rushing back too quick and won't be sharp. I'm not saying we'll win, in fact I expect us to lose, but weirder things have happened.
Kansas - It's bonkers to see that Kansas has the #3 SOR in the entire country right now. Logically I feel like they should be in the "likely to lose" tier, and we'll know more after the TCU game this Saturday. But I still feel like they've caught lightning in a bottle with their games so far. They certainly look better than us right now, but again, if we can regroup and play half decent defense and get DG back, I believe we have a chance.
Iowa St - Our saving grace with ISU is that their offense isn't good. If they struggle and our defense improves throughout the year, we can hopefully keep it low scoring and at least play them close.
Likely to lose:
Baylor - Aranda's defense absolutely shut down CW and the rest of our team last year. Now our offense, even during the first three games, looked like a step back from last year. Not looking good for us.
Oklahoma St - At this point it's clear OSU is the best team in the Big 12 this year. It pains me to think the last Bedlam game in Norman will end with us getting beat, but the Pokes look like they're a borderline playoff team so far this year. I'd be worried about this game even if we were looking good, but barring a miraculous turnaround, we aren't going to win this one.
So I'd put our floor around 5-7, and our ceiling around 8-4. Which honestly, considering how lucky we got in close games last season (Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas St, Texas, and ISU all being 1 score wins, not to mention how close we came to losing to KU) may not be as bad of a disaster as it seems. I'm not downplaying how bad we looked, or how much improvement we need. But just like we weren't suddenly a playoff caliber team because we beat 3 bad/medicore teams, we're not suddenly the next Nebraska because we had two horrible games.
I look at it as we can group the schedule into tiers of opponent and get an idea of what is still realistic. Looking ahead, I would group our remaining schedule as follows:
Should win:
West Virginia - Likely the weakest team in the Big 12 at this point, which is really a testament to how balanced the league is this year. Going on the road to Morgantown will be tough, but even if we play at the level we did against KSU I think we should be able to get the W since I think they're a worse team than KSU
Texas Tech - Yes, they beat Texas. Yes, they are a talented team as well, and yes it's a road game. Very similar to WVU, but we should hopefully have several players back from injury by the end of the season, and hopefully we have improved and learned BV's system better by that point
Could win:
Texas - "Throw the records out the window" is so cliché at this point, but this game more so than any other is one where I really believe it. We have no QB, it's looking like they'll have Ewers back, and our defense doesn't look like they could dump sand out of a boot if the instructions were on the heel. But how many times have we seen an awful Texas team come in and beat a highly ranked OU team in the Cotton Bowl? Who's to say we can't do the same? Ewers has never played in a truly hostile environment, maybe he'll get rattled. Maybe he's rushing back too quick and won't be sharp. I'm not saying we'll win, in fact I expect us to lose, but weirder things have happened.
Kansas - It's bonkers to see that Kansas has the #3 SOR in the entire country right now. Logically I feel like they should be in the "likely to lose" tier, and we'll know more after the TCU game this Saturday. But I still feel like they've caught lightning in a bottle with their games so far. They certainly look better than us right now, but again, if we can regroup and play half decent defense and get DG back, I believe we have a chance.
Iowa St - Our saving grace with ISU is that their offense isn't good. If they struggle and our defense improves throughout the year, we can hopefully keep it low scoring and at least play them close.
Likely to lose:
Baylor - Aranda's defense absolutely shut down CW and the rest of our team last year. Now our offense, even during the first three games, looked like a step back from last year. Not looking good for us.
Oklahoma St - At this point it's clear OSU is the best team in the Big 12 this year. It pains me to think the last Bedlam game in Norman will end with us getting beat, but the Pokes look like they're a borderline playoff team so far this year. I'd be worried about this game even if we were looking good, but barring a miraculous turnaround, we aren't going to win this one.
So I'd put our floor around 5-7, and our ceiling around 8-4. Which honestly, considering how lucky we got in close games last season (Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas St, Texas, and ISU all being 1 score wins, not to mention how close we came to losing to KU) may not be as bad of a disaster as it seems. I'm not downplaying how bad we looked, or how much improvement we need. But just like we weren't suddenly a playoff caliber team because we beat 3 bad/medicore teams, we're not suddenly the next Nebraska because we had two horrible games.
