God the NFL games suck ass today. Which has me bored enough for a TLDR Sunday post.
One good question that's come up in the debate of whether the issue is coaching (Venables isn't the guy and/staff needs turnover) or players (our guys are just all low football IQ no talented JAGs who shouldn't be wearing the crimson and cream) is 'have the players improved this year?'
Between scheme, S&C, new coaches, etc, it is fair to expect players to improve as individually and as a group. One of the things I loved about the old EA Sports football game is how players would progress each year and during the season based on how they played. So I looked at the main contributors through that lens and considered what their EA NCAA rating might be coming into the year and what it would be if the season ended right now.
I tried to grade it similar to the game. Players in the 90s were difference makers. Probably every player would bitch their rating is too low. But it's not like if somebody isn't a good player, they suck and should be a 20. Similar to the ratings in Josh's report guard, it's a reflection of the type of level needed to be the program we expect to be. An 85 would be a good solid player. Realistically, unless your Bama or Georgia, you're not gonna have most players in the 90s. (Thought the 2017 and 2018 OU offense probably did).
I wanted to think about who has improved as a player this year. . One of the joys of Bob's early teams was seeing kids go from 'they flashed' to 'this guy is a dude' in a season. Under FUMS and FUAGG< a lot of defensive players flashed as freshmen...then failed to progress. I hoped BV would change that.
I also look at it from a roster building perspective. IMO, portal kids should be solid 84+ kids. If not, you should have kids with higher upside who can potentially develop into that.
This roster feels like one you'd start the 'Career' mode with and know you have your work cut out out to build a contender. And would throw the controller a lot because of the defense.
QBs
D. Gabriel - DNP 21 Anticipated Rating (91) 22 Rating - (87) - I don't think Gabriel is a bad player. I think we talked ourselves into lofty expectations based on what he did in Lebby's system at UCF. He's a good QB with no real elite traits. He can be a bit inconsistent. He's limited physically. He's probably maxed out as a player.
RBs
E. Gray - 21 Rating (78) 22 Rating - (88) - - He has improved tremendously in all facets of the game. He went from a bit of a disappointment last year to a pleasant surprise. He lacks the top end speed to be an elite back but he's maximizing everything he has right now.
J. Barnes - 21 Rating (N/A) 22 Rating (83) - He's flashed the potential to be an elite back. He's young and still figuring things out. Future is bright.
M. Major- 21 Rating (73) 22 Rating - (75) - Just hasn't been able to put it together in his career and always injured.
WRs
M. Mims - 21 Rating (90) 22 Rating (91) - Still the best receiver on the team and feels underutilized.
J. Farooq -21 Rating (73) 22 Rating (84) - Feels like he's improved this year, but not getting enough targets to reach his potential.
T. Wease - 21 Rating (75) 22 Rating (75) - He is what he is at this point. Good kid, didn't work out.
D. Stoops - 21 Rating (84) 22 Rating (85) - Chain mover, solid player. Is exactly what you want out of a #3 possession receiver.
TEs
B. Willis - 21 Rating (82) 22 Rating (93) - Has morphed into a complete TE and very good player.
OL
A.Harrison - 21 Rating (81) 22 Rating (91) - Quietly has become a rock solid LT who could become elite if he stays one more year.
M. Mattauer 21 Rating (UN) 22 Rating (79) - If your bringing in a transfer, they should be an 85 or grow into one. Otherwise take your lumps with Bryd who will likely max out higher
A. Raym - 21 Rating (80) 22 Rating (86) - Has improved steadily this year. We all got spoiled by Creed who came in game ready. He probably started a year too early, but is getting there.
C. Murray - 21 Rating (82) 22 Rating (82) - Another low ceiling transfer that has likely maxed out his ability.
W. Morris - 21 Rating (77) 22 Rating (82) - Last year we kept hearing the line would be fixed once Morris was eligible. There hadn't been that much anticipation since Gabbo was coming to Springfield. And the letdown was the same. He flashes some weeks, plays bad in others.
We've seen improvement with the starters BB recruited. I get bringing in transfers for depth. But BB recruited a lot of guys the last 3 years who aren't seeing the field. And it's not like any of the transfers are Ben Powers...who went from JUCO kid to a NFL draft pick.
DL
R. Grimes - 21 Rating (73) 22 Rating (74) - We thought an IT like leap was coming after the first 3 games. He's completely disappeared since.
E. Downs - 21 Rating (70) 22 Rating (71)
J. Redmond - 21 Rating (80) 22 Rating (80) - Another guy we expected to get a leap. to impact player He's essentially the same guy and his best football was flashing as a freshmen.
J. Kelly/I. Coe 21 - Rinse and repeat. Both are and were 78-81 players who have not improved
J. Johnson/J. Laulu - Two transfers that should be 85 players that are in the 70s
BV had defensive lines where every player would be in the 90s with depth that had potential to get there and played in the 80s. This unit is a fiasco. No notable improvement from anybody in the 2-deep.
LB
D. Ugwoegbu - 21 Rating (78), 22 Rating (78) - A few flash plays are washed out by frequent busts, slow recognition and inconsistency from the key role in a BV defense.
D. Stutsman 21 Rating (75), 22 Rating (81) - Has improved slightly, but not nearly the jump we expected.
D. White 21 Rating (77) 22 Rating (88) - Is playing really good football. Likely maxed out for what he is, but the one pleasant success story in the front 7.
The lack of depth and no improvement from the MLB and WLB have been a disappointment.
DBs
W. Washington - 21 Rating (89) 22 Rating (91) - Outside of the TCU game, Woodi has been solid. And versatile. He did a good job at safety. He's also played through some injuries this year.
J. Davis 22 Rating (76) 22 Rating (85) - It was a shock when he was named a started when everybody assumed it would Graham's job. Solid in the run game, gets to play enough zone to mask his physical limitations.
B. Bowman - 21 Rating (N/A) 22 Rating (92) - Future is so bright for him. Will be a shock if he's not our best defensive player next year.
K. Lawrence 21 Rating (79) 22 Rating (82) - He's tough to evaluate. He was dinged up early the year. It seems like he's playing better, then takes a step back. Good if he's your weakest link in the secondary. But we don't have that luxury.
J. Broiles - 21 Rating (72) 22 Rating (77) - Good kid. Should be a special teams player at OU.
With the exception of the indestructible Justin Broiles, this whole group has been banged up this year. What's been concerning is there hasn't been a lot of development or flash from the guys behind them. Coldon and Walker are transfers that couldn't win a starting job. Jennings and Williams are just too young right now to count on. They are probably the best unit on defense...which is scary.
I believe in BV in the long term. He' an elite defensive coach when the roster is talented. I dont' think his strength is maximizing the result of lesser talented roster. Squeezing the most of less talent and playing complimintary football is with FUAG was hired to do. I'd rather go the route of a guy who can bring in recruit talent and maximize what that can do. We will experience some harsh growing pains until that talent arrives.
One good question that's come up in the debate of whether the issue is coaching (Venables isn't the guy and/staff needs turnover) or players (our guys are just all low football IQ no talented JAGs who shouldn't be wearing the crimson and cream) is 'have the players improved this year?'
Between scheme, S&C, new coaches, etc, it is fair to expect players to improve as individually and as a group. One of the things I loved about the old EA Sports football game is how players would progress each year and during the season based on how they played. So I looked at the main contributors through that lens and considered what their EA NCAA rating might be coming into the year and what it would be if the season ended right now.
I tried to grade it similar to the game. Players in the 90s were difference makers. Probably every player would bitch their rating is too low. But it's not like if somebody isn't a good player, they suck and should be a 20. Similar to the ratings in Josh's report guard, it's a reflection of the type of level needed to be the program we expect to be. An 85 would be a good solid player. Realistically, unless your Bama or Georgia, you're not gonna have most players in the 90s. (Thought the 2017 and 2018 OU offense probably did).
I wanted to think about who has improved as a player this year. . One of the joys of Bob's early teams was seeing kids go from 'they flashed' to 'this guy is a dude' in a season. Under FUMS and FUAGG< a lot of defensive players flashed as freshmen...then failed to progress. I hoped BV would change that.
I also look at it from a roster building perspective. IMO, portal kids should be solid 84+ kids. If not, you should have kids with higher upside who can potentially develop into that.
This roster feels like one you'd start the 'Career' mode with and know you have your work cut out out to build a contender. And would throw the controller a lot because of the defense.
QBs
D. Gabriel - DNP 21 Anticipated Rating (91) 22 Rating - (87) - I don't think Gabriel is a bad player. I think we talked ourselves into lofty expectations based on what he did in Lebby's system at UCF. He's a good QB with no real elite traits. He can be a bit inconsistent. He's limited physically. He's probably maxed out as a player.
RBs
E. Gray - 21 Rating (78) 22 Rating - (88) - - He has improved tremendously in all facets of the game. He went from a bit of a disappointment last year to a pleasant surprise. He lacks the top end speed to be an elite back but he's maximizing everything he has right now.
J. Barnes - 21 Rating (N/A) 22 Rating (83) - He's flashed the potential to be an elite back. He's young and still figuring things out. Future is bright.
M. Major- 21 Rating (73) 22 Rating - (75) - Just hasn't been able to put it together in his career and always injured.
WRs
M. Mims - 21 Rating (90) 22 Rating (91) - Still the best receiver on the team and feels underutilized.
J. Farooq -21 Rating (73) 22 Rating (84) - Feels like he's improved this year, but not getting enough targets to reach his potential.
T. Wease - 21 Rating (75) 22 Rating (75) - He is what he is at this point. Good kid, didn't work out.
D. Stoops - 21 Rating (84) 22 Rating (85) - Chain mover, solid player. Is exactly what you want out of a #3 possession receiver.
TEs
B. Willis - 21 Rating (82) 22 Rating (93) - Has morphed into a complete TE and very good player.
OL
A.Harrison - 21 Rating (81) 22 Rating (91) - Quietly has become a rock solid LT who could become elite if he stays one more year.
M. Mattauer 21 Rating (UN) 22 Rating (79) - If your bringing in a transfer, they should be an 85 or grow into one. Otherwise take your lumps with Bryd who will likely max out higher
A. Raym - 21 Rating (80) 22 Rating (86) - Has improved steadily this year. We all got spoiled by Creed who came in game ready. He probably started a year too early, but is getting there.
C. Murray - 21 Rating (82) 22 Rating (82) - Another low ceiling transfer that has likely maxed out his ability.
W. Morris - 21 Rating (77) 22 Rating (82) - Last year we kept hearing the line would be fixed once Morris was eligible. There hadn't been that much anticipation since Gabbo was coming to Springfield. And the letdown was the same. He flashes some weeks, plays bad in others.
We've seen improvement with the starters BB recruited. I get bringing in transfers for depth. But BB recruited a lot of guys the last 3 years who aren't seeing the field. And it's not like any of the transfers are Ben Powers...who went from JUCO kid to a NFL draft pick.
DL
R. Grimes - 21 Rating (73) 22 Rating (74) - We thought an IT like leap was coming after the first 3 games. He's completely disappeared since.
E. Downs - 21 Rating (70) 22 Rating (71)
J. Redmond - 21 Rating (80) 22 Rating (80) - Another guy we expected to get a leap. to impact player He's essentially the same guy and his best football was flashing as a freshmen.
J. Kelly/I. Coe 21 - Rinse and repeat. Both are and were 78-81 players who have not improved
J. Johnson/J. Laulu - Two transfers that should be 85 players that are in the 70s
BV had defensive lines where every player would be in the 90s with depth that had potential to get there and played in the 80s. This unit is a fiasco. No notable improvement from anybody in the 2-deep.
LB
D. Ugwoegbu - 21 Rating (78), 22 Rating (78) - A few flash plays are washed out by frequent busts, slow recognition and inconsistency from the key role in a BV defense.
D. Stutsman 21 Rating (75), 22 Rating (81) - Has improved slightly, but not nearly the jump we expected.
D. White 21 Rating (77) 22 Rating (88) - Is playing really good football. Likely maxed out for what he is, but the one pleasant success story in the front 7.
The lack of depth and no improvement from the MLB and WLB have been a disappointment.
DBs
W. Washington - 21 Rating (89) 22 Rating (91) - Outside of the TCU game, Woodi has been solid. And versatile. He did a good job at safety. He's also played through some injuries this year.
J. Davis 22 Rating (76) 22 Rating (85) - It was a shock when he was named a started when everybody assumed it would Graham's job. Solid in the run game, gets to play enough zone to mask his physical limitations.
B. Bowman - 21 Rating (N/A) 22 Rating (92) - Future is so bright for him. Will be a shock if he's not our best defensive player next year.
K. Lawrence 21 Rating (79) 22 Rating (82) - He's tough to evaluate. He was dinged up early the year. It seems like he's playing better, then takes a step back. Good if he's your weakest link in the secondary. But we don't have that luxury.
J. Broiles - 21 Rating (72) 22 Rating (77) - Good kid. Should be a special teams player at OU.
With the exception of the indestructible Justin Broiles, this whole group has been banged up this year. What's been concerning is there hasn't been a lot of development or flash from the guys behind them. Coldon and Walker are transfers that couldn't win a starting job. Jennings and Williams are just too young right now to count on. They are probably the best unit on defense...which is scary.
I believe in BV in the long term. He' an elite defensive coach when the roster is talented. I dont' think his strength is maximizing the result of lesser talented roster. Squeezing the most of less talent and playing complimintary football is with FUAG was hired to do. I'd rather go the route of a guy who can bring in recruit talent and maximize what that can do. We will experience some harsh growing pains until that talent arrives.
