Some of you may recall, about a year ago I asked for the board to help with a project. The task, was to rate signees from 02-10 on my scale of 1-5. Being that I didn't follow the program closely enough to know the fine intricacies of some of the lesser known players until '11 and on. So I compiled data. I added that with my evaluations from '11-'18. I figured in star ratings as well. So I'm about to drop some truth on yall. But before I do, here is how Neal's grading system works.
1*= Literally did nothing at OU. RARELY played, never showed up, or contributed nothing during career. Recent examples: Dalton Wood / Ashton Julious / Eric Swenson
2*= Played Sparingly, but mostly career backup. Might have had a start or 2, but hasn't stood out. Recent examples: Kapri Doucet / A.D. Miller / Will Sunderland
3*= 2 year starter (1 year if JUCO signee), All conference possibly, not drafted. Recent Examples: Ahmad Thomas / Matt Dimon / Will Johnson
4*= Very good player at OU. All American or drafted. Recent Examples = Sterling Shepard / Orlando Brown / Joe Mixon / Eric Striker
5* = 1st round draft pick, National Award winner, or OU record holder. Recent Examples: Baker Mayfield / Samaje Perine / Mark Andrews / Dede Westbrook
Not sure if I'll be able to upload my line graphs onto this thread, but the data shows there is a correlation with Avg. Star rating, and Avg. result ranking.
*Keep in mind this is data interpreted by humans. Though I tried to keep hard / fast rules with specific criteria for each result ranking...there could be human error. Also, I rank current players when I feel I have a good idea of what their end careers will look like. Example. Rodney Anderson = 4 star, Chanse Sylvie = 2 Star, Kenneth Murray = 3 Star. I update accordingly throughout the year. Not all active players are ranked.
'02: Star: 3.79 / Result 2.54
'03: 3.58 / 1.92
'04: 3.72 / 2.56
'05: 3.63 / 2.85
'06: 3.54 / 2.75
'07: 3.38 / 2.24
'08: 3.80 / 2.30
'09: 3.43 / 2.00
'10: 3.55 / 2.69
'11: 3.64 / 1.88
'12: 3.48 / 2.36
'13: 3.16 / 2.28
'14: 3.22 / 2.19
'15: 3.54 / 2.33
'16: 3.48 / 2.05
'17: 3.63 / 2.67
'18: 3.81 / 1.00
As I said, in a line graph you can see how these correlate to one another. Noticable things above? '18 class is the best star average we've signed. '13 and '14 were the worst years. '05 is the best results year. '11 is the worst results year.
But I doubt that's the interesting part of my little study. I can sort by star ranking. So here we go
5* = 2.74 result average
4* = 2.55 result average
3* = 2.13 result average
2* = 1.95 result average
Again, there could be some human error between a few 1s and 2s, but over 16 years of 20-30 signees per class, any discrepancy is largely negligible, and I was unbiased as I could be (Farrar was a 1*). I'll keep updating this as I go.
Either way, hope yall enjoy. 4 and 5 stars matter. If anyone wants to take a look at my spreadsheet for a peer review of sorts, I'll email it to you.
1*= Literally did nothing at OU. RARELY played, never showed up, or contributed nothing during career. Recent examples: Dalton Wood / Ashton Julious / Eric Swenson
2*= Played Sparingly, but mostly career backup. Might have had a start or 2, but hasn't stood out. Recent examples: Kapri Doucet / A.D. Miller / Will Sunderland
3*= 2 year starter (1 year if JUCO signee), All conference possibly, not drafted. Recent Examples: Ahmad Thomas / Matt Dimon / Will Johnson
4*= Very good player at OU. All American or drafted. Recent Examples = Sterling Shepard / Orlando Brown / Joe Mixon / Eric Striker
5* = 1st round draft pick, National Award winner, or OU record holder. Recent Examples: Baker Mayfield / Samaje Perine / Mark Andrews / Dede Westbrook
Not sure if I'll be able to upload my line graphs onto this thread, but the data shows there is a correlation with Avg. Star rating, and Avg. result ranking.
*Keep in mind this is data interpreted by humans. Though I tried to keep hard / fast rules with specific criteria for each result ranking...there could be human error. Also, I rank current players when I feel I have a good idea of what their end careers will look like. Example. Rodney Anderson = 4 star, Chanse Sylvie = 2 Star, Kenneth Murray = 3 Star. I update accordingly throughout the year. Not all active players are ranked.
'02: Star: 3.79 / Result 2.54
'03: 3.58 / 1.92
'04: 3.72 / 2.56
'05: 3.63 / 2.85
'06: 3.54 / 2.75
'07: 3.38 / 2.24
'08: 3.80 / 2.30
'09: 3.43 / 2.00
'10: 3.55 / 2.69
'11: 3.64 / 1.88
'12: 3.48 / 2.36
'13: 3.16 / 2.28
'14: 3.22 / 2.19
'15: 3.54 / 2.33
'16: 3.48 / 2.05
'17: 3.63 / 2.67
'18: 3.81 / 1.00
As I said, in a line graph you can see how these correlate to one another. Noticable things above? '18 class is the best star average we've signed. '13 and '14 were the worst years. '05 is the best results year. '11 is the worst results year.
But I doubt that's the interesting part of my little study. I can sort by star ranking. So here we go
5* = 2.74 result average
4* = 2.55 result average
3* = 2.13 result average
2* = 1.95 result average
Again, there could be some human error between a few 1s and 2s, but over 16 years of 20-30 signees per class, any discrepancy is largely negligible, and I was unbiased as I could be (Farrar was a 1*). I'll keep updating this as I go.
Either way, hope yall enjoy. 4 and 5 stars matter. If anyone wants to take a look at my spreadsheet for a peer review of sorts, I'll email it to you.
