Liucci
4:00a, 7/23/21
Staff
AG
"My task is to make sure this conference is in the best possible position for whatever is going to happen in the future. We've seen Name, Image and Likeness, congressional interest and state legislative activity. The pace of change is at the highest level in the history of college sports and we're all going to be adaptable, that's our reality."
When Nuño and I asked SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey our single, two-part question today on Radio Row in Hoover, my initial thought was that he danced around the question like a seasoned politician. A classic non-answer answer. When I listened to the brief interview a second time, however, I realized that his three-sentence answer spoke volumes as it pertained to the topic that everyone in Hoover and around the country was buzzing about on Wednesday and Thursday. Go back and re-read or give it a listen. Sankey said nothing but at the same time provided a pretty significant tell, in my opinion.
Texas and Oklahoma are very likely to eventually (and that's a keyword here) wind up in the SEC, and the commissioner is laying the groundwork for the reasoning behind a decision that will end up sending shockwaves across college football.
First things first: Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC is not the done deal you'd think it was if you watched Longhorn and Sooner fans celebrate on social media last night (more on that in a moment).
Second: It's not happening nearly as quickly as folks have tried to make it seem in recent headline grabs.
Nevertheless, I've talked to plenty of folks on all sides of this thing - A&M, the Big 12 and from every imaginable angle in the SEC.
One thing appears certain: There has been extensive communication between the league (most likely Greg Sankey himself) and the two would-be Big 12 defectors dating back months and perhaps even as far back as more than a year. This thing is much further down the road than I think anyone in Aggieland or even at other places around the conference imagined, but it's still far from the finish line.
Now that things have been leaked (and I had at least one A&M source reach out yesterday with the news who wanted to see it get out there,), a bright light is shining on what Texas and OU intend to do. As you guys know, this isn't the first time the Longhorns have set up a great escape from the Big 12 Conference. The last time they tried, Texas A&M blew up their 'Pac-16' model and tried to leave for the SEC. Texas, Baylor, Tech and a couple of other programs kept it from happening and held the Big 12 together by a string the first time around. Ihe Aggies eventually got their way and left the Longhorns, Sooners and everyone else behind.
Fast forward to today, and it's the Longhorns in search of greener pastures and the Aggies who have every intention of keeping Texas from following their bold lead a full decade later.
Let's cut to the chase here and lay some facts on the table and hear a few thoughts from yours truly, shall we? I'm just going spitball for the sake of time so I can get these thoughts posted before crashing following a very long and busy three days in Alabama.
- Make no mistake about it, Wednesday afternoon marked the death of the Big 12 Conference. There's no coming back from this. Nebraska, Colorado, the LHN, Missouri, A&M, the Pac-16 idea and now this. At what point do Sankey and leadership from programs like Alabama, LSU and Florida take a step back and realize what they're close to getting into?
The answer is that Texas' history as a horrible conference partner will be overlooked because of what adding Texas and Oklahoma would mean to the league. Not necessarily in terms of televisions in Oklahoma or even the Lone Star State, but more specifically when it comes to the SEC stepping into the future of college football. Sankey knows change is afoot and that the game is likely staring things like Super Conferences and a clean break from the NCAA in the face. If that's indeed the case, and Sankey and the league decision-makers know it, grabbing two of college football's most storied programs now - while they are attainable and actively looking for a home - would understandably seem like a win for the conference to most, at least in the immediate future.
That's not me trying to get anyone to 'accept what's coming' or spin it as some sort of positive. That's just me keeping the discussion real. If - and again, realize what a big if this is - we're on the verge of four sixteen-team Super Conferences or perhaps even a 24-team league (or two) that essentially becomes 'the NFL on Saturdays,' there are three prizes out there: Notre Dame, OU and Texas. If you know what's coming, you simply cannot risk letting anyone out of that group go elsewhere.
This is about television contracts and power and adding the two programs would push the SEC to even greater heights in both departments. It's also why Texas and Oklahoma desperately want out. This entire thing began when the Horns and Sooners began to see what the league's future TV contract with FOX was going to look like. It was disturbingly light and Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby's expansion options didn't move the needle in the slightest.
But here's where things get pretty interesting.
Word around SEC circles is that Sankey and Texas have been in communication for more than a year. What's unclear is which university presidents or ADs were aware of the cloak-and-dagger courtship. That also happens to be roughly the same time the SEC's television contract came up and ESPN won out over longtime conference partner CBS. Would it shock anyone reading this if I told you that some I've talked to since yesterday, including a couple with no ties to TAMU, believe that ESPN sweetened the pot (and helped themselves out tremendously in the process) by telling Sankey that if they won the SEC TV bid that they could get the Longhorns and Sooners to join the party? As one non-A&M source in the national media told me tonight, "This has ESPN's fingerprints all over it."
The benefits here are obvious. Land the coveted SEC deal. Add OU and Texas and have the television rights for the first-ever 'Super Conference.' Destroy the Big 12 and rip away a chunk of FOX's college football coverage in the process.
- "If Texas and OU truly want in, this deal probably won't get killed at the SEC level. It'll die at the state level, in both Texas and Oklahoma."
That's from what I'll call a source who is pretty damn plugged into how things work both in the Southeastern Conference and at the capital. It's also why you're seeing legislators from Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU rally today to file legislation blocking any state school from switching conferences without legislative approval (and yes, a bill was being drafted as I boarded the plane from Birmingham Thursday afternoon).
Apparently, there are quite a few Longhorns and Sooners on Twitter who moonlight as political experts, and they'll tell you that there's zero chance this thing gets blocked because Governor Abbott is a Longhorn. They'll also point to Rick Perry being an Aggie as the reason A&M was able to leave the first time around. Thing is, even with Perry in charge, it took the Aggies two tries and many months to get out and break free of the legal wrangling in order to finally make the move. An example of such pressure could be found on Twitter today when a pair of powerful House Chairs were actively railing against the Longhorns and Abbott both.
Ultimately, A&M was able to make it out, but part of what made it so damn difficult and drawn out was the fact that state politicians from not only Texas but the schools who would be hit hardest pushed the narrative that not only the universities but also the entire state economy would be crippled if A&M left the Big 12. Well, it's an absolute certainty that the conference will be reduced to nothing without its two power programs, so imagine how visceral the reaction was today by politicians statewide and how tense things must have been when Big 12 leadership met in an emergency session. Not surprisingly, neither Texas nor OU took part in the meeting, a giant middle finger to the remaining eight teams and par for the course from the folks in Austin.
Again, this was never going to be a clean escape for the Longhorns or the Sooners, who would be leaving the other big state program Oklahoma State (the Governor of Oklahoma is an OSU Cowboy, in case you were wondering) in a pile of red dirt if the SEC dream were to become a reality.
- Another meeting took place today in Birmingham, where an already-scheduled convergence of SEC presidents was held. I stated earlier today that I imagined things would be pretty intense during that particular sit down, and I've been told that new Texas A&M University President Dr. Kathy Banks made sure that Texas A&M's stance was crystal clear.
Per a source, Dr. Banks only spoke to Sankey himself and not the other university presidents, and sources in Hoover tell me that the commissioner wasn't neutral at all when dealing with the presidents but instead being very out in the open about the Red River rivals' inclusion moving forward.
Sankey reportedly also made it clear that there was no intention of honoring former commissioner Mike Slive's 'gentleman's agreement' - the same one the conference has held up for Florida, South Carolina, Georgia and Kentucky in the East for many years now. The Aggies fully intend on fighting this particular battle, by the way.
All of this to say that adding OU and Texas absolutely feels like a move the commissioner is planning to make happen and has planned to make happen for quite some time.
- Let's say a final green light is delayed by a political roadblock here or there. Okay, fine. I sat on the other side of this thing a decade ago (when Texas was trying to block the Ags' move with help from Baylor and Tech) and told you guys time and time again that it didn't matter because A&M to the SEC was happening, and it was simply a matter of when.
I feel like we're in that same place today, only there's a pretty substantial television deal that runs until 2025 between FOX and the Big 12. Earlier this evening, I was told by a trusted source that a likely scenario could involve Sankey telling the Sooners and Longhorns to simply ride out the current TV contract if the Big 12 refuses to cut a deal. That deal ends in 2025, but I have a hard time believing we'd see three seasons of Texas and OU playing as lame Big 12 ducks. Still, it wouldn't come as a major shock to see them stuck in the dying league against their will for at least this season and next.
If you can, file away that idea...that the Horns and Sooners are likely to eventually join the conference barring things falling apart at the finish line but that they may not start playing football in the SEC until 2023 or so. We'll revisit it momentarily.
- Now let's assume this isn't about college football actually being on the doorstep of the 'Super Conference Era' and it simply about Texas and OU trying to run out of a burning building and pushing every and anyone in their path out of the way en route to the exit a la Michael Scott in The Office.
If that's the case, this isn't about Texas A&M being scared of Texas joining the SEC as so many delusional Longhorns clearly believe and won't stop howling about on social media. The Aggies don't want Texas in the conference for several reasons.
First and foremost: Decision-makers at TAMU know better than anyone that the Longhorns are as bad as it gets when it comes to working together as partners. It's a big part of why A&M left in the first place, and there's little to no desire to resume that partnership a decade later.
Second, it goes without saying that the Aggies would prefer to be the only Texas program in the SEC, something Ross Bjork was pretty vocal about on Wednesday. That was a big part of the draw during realignment, and it was also something that Commissioner Slive verbally assured several members of A&M's decision-making arm would always remain the case during the courtship a decade ago. The advantages are obvious, the biggest of which is the tangible recruiting edge A&M has enjoyed since making the move. That applies to OU on a lesser scale since the Sooners have done such a good job of recruiting nationally under Bob Stoops and now Lincoln Riley, but it's incredibly significant when it comes to the Aggies being able to offer something that the Longhorns simply cannot - the chance to stay home and play in the League of Champions.
If Texas doesn't get past the velvet rope this time around, the gap will never be wider, as both the Horns and Sooners have essentially announced to the world what I've been stating as fact for ten years: The Big 12 is an absolute dumpster fire with a very short life expectancy. You know it, I know it and everyone in Austin knows it, which only adds to the desire in College Station to keep the move from happening.
- That said, I'd caution readers and even A&M's power brokers to take a page from Jimbo Fisher's book here. Don't worry about the Longhorns or Sooners when it comes to the challenge they'll present on the field. On Wednesday, Fisher laughed and let fly with an "I bet they do" when told the Ags former Big 12 rivals wanted an invite to the party. He's not at all concerned with the Longhorns, certainly not Steve Sarkisian or even OU and Dri-Fit Lincoln Riley. We're talking about a head coach who built a national titlist and top-five program at Florida State, one who has won two national titles and already has a New Year's Six bowl win under his belt in Aggieland. Fisher has also led his team into battle against the very best college football has to offer during his first three seasons in College Station, so forgive him if a now very pedestrian Texas program and OU don't keep him up nights.
Rather, Jimbo is focused on his current team, signing another top-six class and the continued development and evolution of his program. The Ags just finished the 2020 season ranked No. 4 and will enter 2021 as a top-10 squad. Fisher could have his team in the playoff conversation for a second straight season and could put a legitimate SEC title contender on the field this fall. Things only look up from there considering the incredible amount of talent the Aggies are stockpiling in the lower classes.
Long story short, Texas A&M is a top-10 program at this point in time, and Texas is nowhere close to that. If in two years the Ags are a top 5-7 program with a couple of NY6 wins an SEC title or better and led by a national championship-winning head coach and absolutely incredible alumni support, then it really doesn't matter what Sarkisian and the Horns bring to the league.
The Aggies will likely have a 10- or 11-year head start in the SEC, and what the Horns and Sooners will quickly learn (actually, OU learned it the hard way when they were humiliated by Johnny Manziel and the Ags in the Cotton Bowl) is that this isn't the same Texas A&M that left the Big 12 eleven years ago.
If you had the pleasure of being in Hoover this week, you'd realize how much respect Jimbo Fisher's club and what he's building in Aggieland is currently garnering league-wide. The Aggies have rebranded themselves on a much bigger stage and, frankly, are a better program than Texas. They don't need to worry about anyone else right now and won't need to in a couple of years when the Horns and Sooners are likely to saunter in.
Now, I'm not saying the Ags shouldn't fight this thing and make it very clear to Sankey and the conference that they're absolutely livid about the way things have gone down up until this point. A&M has been 'new guy'd' by SEC leadership up until this point, and the fact the Aggies have essentially been left in the dark for quite some time when it comes to something as significant as expansion and adding a second team from the Lone Star State is pretty disgusting. So yeah, make some folks as uncomfortable as you can until this thing essentially reaches the fait accompli stage, but be ready to man the hell up and embrace the idea of kicking the crap out of the overmatched Texas Longhorns team that you would have probably beaten in six or seven of the last eight seasons as it is and get ready to play Jimbo Fisher bully ball and do to Oklahoma what everyone else in the SEC not missing 1/3 of their starting lineup does to the Sooners in the post-season.
- And one final note to any lurking Sooners: You may own the Longhorns on the field, but don't ever forget your role when it comes to the Red River Relationship. You've been led around on a leash by Bevo since the formation of the Big 12, which is why your chances of joining the league a decade ago were crushed about as swiftly a Lincoln Riley team in the CFP (or against Kansas State, for that matter). Lucky for the folks in Norman, Texas has finally wised up, and the Horns are knock, knock, knocking on Sankey's door (he likes his Dylan references) with OU standing beside them.
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