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Above is a big12 seeding generator. By playing around with the wins and losses it looks like there are 5 independent scenarios that can happen that will put OU in the Big12 Title game assuming OU wins out. I've calculated %s based on ESPN FPI win % for each matchup (or multiple matchups). FPI has its issues but its the best thing we have currently.
Kansas loses to both K State and Cinci - 32%
Or
Texas loses to ISU - 22%
Or
Texas loses to Tech and ISU beats Kst - 2%
Or
OSU loses to Houston - 35%
Or
OSU loses to BYU - 18%
% Chance OU doesn’t make it. All 5 must not happen
(1-.32)(1-.22)(1-.02)(1-.35)(1-.18)
.68 x .78 x .98 x .65 x .82 = 27.7%
% Chance OU does make it
1-.277 = 72.3%
If OU wins the next 2 games there is greater than 72% chance one of the scenarios laid out takes place and the Sooners are in Arlington
