Bull, I promise that after the 2016 team run ruled Tennessee in Knoxville, (okay technically it wasn't run rule, because the game went 7 innings, but it was a run rule margin that we got to in the 7th) I absolutely thought we had a great chance to win it. I knew that we wouldn't have a chance if we ended up in the loser's bracket in any part of the tournament. But we avoided the loser's bracket, which allowed us to rely on Parker. If we played in must wins with any other pitcher, it would have been disaster.
But I loved the way that they were playing. And when you pitch great, which we did when Parker was pitching, and when you play great defense, which we did once Clifton became the starting 2nd baseman, I thought we had a great chance. I was much more confident heading into the tournament last season, than I am this year, especially after we got a three seeding, which I didn't think the powers that be, would give us
Sybarite said one in three chance. That goes to one in eight to ten, if we don't end up an eight seed or better. And if we make it to eight seed, and Florida is a one, then I think me might not score on them. If Needum can shut down OUr offense, I'm not real confident about playing a team from the SEC who has two starting pitchers with ERA numbers under 1.00. Barnhill is under 0.40. You never know. But if we are a road team in the Supers, I don't like OUr chances.
I do think that the SEC in softball is a bit like the SEC in football. They are more athletic than most everybody else except maybe the Pac 12. But despite the athleticism, they aren't special offensively. They are a bit like OU. If they play against teams that have good or better pitching, and play really good defense, then you can slow their offenses considerably.
I believe that OSU and Baylor are as good offensively as anybody in the SEC. They aren't as good in the circle as the best teams in the SEC, and they aren't great defensively. But they can compete with those teams, given a fair chance. It's just that you don't get a fair chance often on the road in baseball or softball in the playoffs. It's just the way it is.
What the committee decides in the next 23 hours is going to have a big impact on how good OUr championship chances are.