1. OU's freshman tackles against Clemson's defensive ends, especially in pass protection. If Orlando Brown can handle Shaq Lawson, the whole dynamic of the game changes. Noise is going to be a factor here. Brown has to play his best game of the year. But he has shut down some terrific D Ends this year. Samia better be really good too. Kevin Dodd isn't as good as Lawson, but he has averaged close to 3/4 of a sack per game. That's a lot for a strong side defensive end in a 4-3. If OU's freshmen can hold their own, and OU doesn't have to double it makes it much more likely that the Sooners can handle BV's innovative blitz pressures. If the tackles need frequent help, OU will be very unlikely to win.
2. Clemson is number one in the country in producing three and outs. OU cannot play with tempo unless they are successful on the first series of downs. If the Sooners have more than three, it's a negative game changer.
3. Odd stat of the year maybe. Everybody says that in big games, turnovers make the difference. Clemson is ranked number one in the country, despite having a small negative in turnover margin. If the Sooners can be more than plus one in turnovers, they have a great chance to win. DeShawn Watson has nearly one interception thrown per game. If either side gets a defensive score, it could be huge. Baker Mayfield has only five interceptions this season, less than half of Watson's total.
4. Which quarterback makes the most lemonade plays? When the rush gets there, which quarterback makes a big play anyway. These are probably the two best in the country at buying time. Watson tends to run more when the called play breaks down. Mayfield is more likely to keep his eyes upfield. Watson tends to lock onto a receiver a little more. Thomas and Sanchez have made other quarterbacks pay for that.
4a. Whose pass rush makes the tackle when they got the chance. Striker is not much bigger than Watson. This isn't McCaron that he's chasing. This guy have over 800 yards rushing. He's not just elusive. He is a running game play maker.
5. Which team can run the ball better without using the quarterback? That means which line run blocks better. Both teams have quality runners that can hurt the defense when they get room to run. And they have to have ball protection.
6. Top five key play calls. When it's a crucial down, mostly it's about who makes a play. But with a month to prepare, there are going to be some well considered gadgets. When your coach wins it for you on two or three crucial downs, confidence soars. Same thing if the trick they've been working on as a surprise on second and six produces a score or sets up one.
7. Will OU's depth in the DL help them take over the second half as they've done in every game since mid October when Mayfield was able to play. It helps to chase Watson if you're not gassed.
8. No crucial injuries. There are guys you can lose and guys you can't.
9. Which of the non star receivers makes the plays that are there to make? No drops on third down, or that get you into really tough down and distance. Catch the damn ball is magnified.
10. Kicking game. Duh. Maybe the Sooners got a little boost. when the TIgers' XP and kickoff guy was sent home. Their established kicker still had been doing FG's. But for whatever reason, he's been very inconsistent on XP's missing six. And OU's freshman kicker started better than he finished. Poise for him will be a big deal. Eight months ago, he was preparing for his prom. The Sooners are more likely to have a big kickoff return, and less likely to have a big punt return. In general, the coverage units have been solid this season. The return game, except for a great KO return by Ross against OSU has been disappointing.
11. Which team most effective uses a spy, strategically on their defense. It was the key to how Texas beat OU. Mike has used it more in the second half of the season. Both almost have to use it some.
12. Crucial penalties. There is a Pac 12 crew working this game. And there seems to be a focus this bowl season on calling targeting, even when a defender wraps up a ball carrier or receiver and hits shoulder to number, but it slides up late in the tackle. Neither team would be well served by losing a key defender.
14. Which team is most affected by last season's blowout? If Clemson isn't in their A+ game because they are as good as last year with a better quarterback, and undefeated, then I don't think they can win. On the other side, if Clemson gets an early lead, for any reason close to how last year's bowl game started, how would the Sooners react.
15. Weather, crowd noise, the layoff and all the other intangibles. This kind of pressure after this kind of layoff could make for some strange. Two years ago, OU was outmanned but played the best game they'd played in a while. Last year, it was close to the opposite. Supposed to maybe be a little wet tomorrow. I've never liked the way we've played in bad weather in the Stoops era, especially on grass. Who jumps snap count's. Who has trouble getting lined up and burns time outs. This is the first daytime Orange Bowls since the 60s I believe. Temps in the low 80s with a 20% chance of rain and humidty in the 70s or 80s. This is leg cramping weather. After a long layoff, it has to be at least a little bit of a factor.
2. Clemson is number one in the country in producing three and outs. OU cannot play with tempo unless they are successful on the first series of downs. If the Sooners have more than three, it's a negative game changer.
3. Odd stat of the year maybe. Everybody says that in big games, turnovers make the difference. Clemson is ranked number one in the country, despite having a small negative in turnover margin. If the Sooners can be more than plus one in turnovers, they have a great chance to win. DeShawn Watson has nearly one interception thrown per game. If either side gets a defensive score, it could be huge. Baker Mayfield has only five interceptions this season, less than half of Watson's total.
4. Which quarterback makes the most lemonade plays? When the rush gets there, which quarterback makes a big play anyway. These are probably the two best in the country at buying time. Watson tends to run more when the called play breaks down. Mayfield is more likely to keep his eyes upfield. Watson tends to lock onto a receiver a little more. Thomas and Sanchez have made other quarterbacks pay for that.
4a. Whose pass rush makes the tackle when they got the chance. Striker is not much bigger than Watson. This isn't McCaron that he's chasing. This guy have over 800 yards rushing. He's not just elusive. He is a running game play maker.
5. Which team can run the ball better without using the quarterback? That means which line run blocks better. Both teams have quality runners that can hurt the defense when they get room to run. And they have to have ball protection.
6. Top five key play calls. When it's a crucial down, mostly it's about who makes a play. But with a month to prepare, there are going to be some well considered gadgets. When your coach wins it for you on two or three crucial downs, confidence soars. Same thing if the trick they've been working on as a surprise on second and six produces a score or sets up one.
7. Will OU's depth in the DL help them take over the second half as they've done in every game since mid October when Mayfield was able to play. It helps to chase Watson if you're not gassed.
8. No crucial injuries. There are guys you can lose and guys you can't.
9. Which of the non star receivers makes the plays that are there to make? No drops on third down, or that get you into really tough down and distance. Catch the damn ball is magnified.
10. Kicking game. Duh. Maybe the Sooners got a little boost. when the TIgers' XP and kickoff guy was sent home. Their established kicker still had been doing FG's. But for whatever reason, he's been very inconsistent on XP's missing six. And OU's freshman kicker started better than he finished. Poise for him will be a big deal. Eight months ago, he was preparing for his prom. The Sooners are more likely to have a big kickoff return, and less likely to have a big punt return. In general, the coverage units have been solid this season. The return game, except for a great KO return by Ross against OSU has been disappointing.
11. Which team most effective uses a spy, strategically on their defense. It was the key to how Texas beat OU. Mike has used it more in the second half of the season. Both almost have to use it some.
12. Crucial penalties. There is a Pac 12 crew working this game. And there seems to be a focus this bowl season on calling targeting, even when a defender wraps up a ball carrier or receiver and hits shoulder to number, but it slides up late in the tackle. Neither team would be well served by losing a key defender.
14. Which team is most affected by last season's blowout? If Clemson isn't in their A+ game because they are as good as last year with a better quarterback, and undefeated, then I don't think they can win. On the other side, if Clemson gets an early lead, for any reason close to how last year's bowl game started, how would the Sooners react.
15. Weather, crowd noise, the layoff and all the other intangibles. This kind of pressure after this kind of layoff could make for some strange. Two years ago, OU was outmanned but played the best game they'd played in a while. Last year, it was close to the opposite. Supposed to maybe be a little wet tomorrow. I've never liked the way we've played in bad weather in the Stoops era, especially on grass. Who jumps snap count's. Who has trouble getting lined up and burns time outs. This is the first daytime Orange Bowls since the 60s I believe. Temps in the low 80s with a 20% chance of rain and humidty in the 70s or 80s. This is leg cramping weather. After a long layoff, it has to be at least a little bit of a factor.
